中国科技创新政策效果评估及其时空差异分析——基于省际面板数据  

Effect Evaluation of China’s Science and Technology Innovation Policy and Analysis of its Spatial-temporal Differences——Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：汪凯[1] 许露露 朱艳玲[1] WANG Kai;XU Lu-lu;ZHU Yan-ling(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院

出　　处：《太原师范学院学报（社会科学版）》2019年第4期68-74,共7页Journal of Taiyuan Normal University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于惩罚似然的变量选择方法及其在高维数据模型中的应用”(71803001);高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目(gxyq ZD2019031)

摘　　要：通过将国家科技创新政策进行分类,并选取相应的代表性指标作为解释变量、控制变量以及被解释变量,基于中国2006—2017年的省份年度数据构建面板数据模型,评析中国科技创新政策的总体效果和时空差异性,结果显示:12年间,中国制定实施的科技创新政策整体上取得了显著效果,其中供给性创新政策和需求性创新政策的促进效应最明显,环境基础性创新政策的效果不明显;科技创新政策效果具有时期差异,“十一五”时期,中国的创新政策整体取得了较好的效果,而“十二五”时期仅供给性创新政策效果显著,其他政策收效甚微;科技创新政策呈现出一定的区域差异,供给性创新政策对西部地区产生的效果最大,需求性创新政策在东北地区取得的政策效果最大,而环境基础性创新政策仅在中部地区取得了较好的效果。By classifying national science and technology innovation policies and selecting corresponding representative indicators as explanatory variables,control variables,and explanatory variables.These variables,based on China’s 2006-2017 provincial annual data building panel data model,analyze the overall effect and time-space difference of China’s science and technology innovation policy.The results show that:(1)In the past 12 years,China’s science and technology innovation policy formulated and implemented has achieved remarkable results overall,in which the promotion effect of supply innovation policy and demand innovation policy is the most obvious,while the effect of environmental basic innovation policy is not obvious;(2)The effect of science and technology innovation policy has a period difference.During“The eleventh Five-Year Plan”period,China’s innovation policy has achieved good results overall,while in“The twelfth Five-Year Plan”period,only supply-oriented innovation policies have achieved remarkable results.(3)The science and technology innovation policy shows certain regional differences.The supply innovation policy has the greatest effect on the western region.The demand innovation policy has the greatest policy effect in the northeast region,while the environmental basic innovation policy has achieved good results only in the central region.

关 键 词：创新驱动 创新政策 政策效果 面板数据模型 时空差异 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]