全球变暖背景下青藏高原及周边地区冰川变化的时空格局与趋势及影响  

Spatiotemporal Pattern, Trend, and Influence of Glacier Change in Tibetan Plateau and Surroundings under Global Warming

作　　者：王宁练[1,3,4] 姚檀栋 徐柏青[1,2] 陈安安[3,4] 王伟财[1,2] WANG Ninglian;YAO Tandong;XU Baiqing;CHEN An’an;WANG Weicai(Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Xi’an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京100101 [2]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100101 [3]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710127 [4]陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安710127

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2019年第11期1220-1232,共13页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究（2019QZKK0201）;中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）（XDA20060201）;国家重点研发计划（2017YFC0404302)

摘　　要：作为“亚洲水塔”重要组成部分的冰川,对气候变化的响应极其敏感。研究全球变暖背景下青藏高原及周边地区冰川变化的时空格局特征,有助于识别“亚洲水塔”的主要储水与供水区域,这对水资源的合理规划与利用具有重要意义。文章通过综合分析,揭示出“喀喇昆仑异常”现象在昆仑山西部和帕米尔高原地区亦有不同程度的表现,分布在这些区域以外的青藏高原及周边地区山地冰川近期大多处于加速消融状态;同时,阐明了近50年来以及未来不同气候变化情景下青藏高原及周边地区冰川变化对流域水资源状况和海平面上升的影响;并指出,要系统开展青藏高原及周边地区冰川的调查与观测,建立气候-冰川-水文过程耦合模型,准确评估变化环境下的冰川水资源状况及其影响,以服务于中国社会经济发展和“绿色丝绸之路”建设。Glaciers,an important part of Asia’s water tower,are extremely sensitive to climate change.The study on the spatiotemporal pattern of the changes of the glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings in the context of global warming is helpful to identify the main water storage and supply areas of Asian Water Towers,which is of great significance for the rational planning and utilization of water resources.Through comprehensive analysis,it was revealed that the“Karakoram anomaly”might expand in different degrees to the Western Kunlun Mountains and the Pamirs,while the glaciers in the other parts of the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings were in an accelerated melting state recently.Moreover,we also illuminated the influences of the changes of the glaciers over the past 50 years and in different climate scenarios in the future on the basin water resources and sea level rise,and pointed out that the glacier observation and investigation should be carried out systematically,and a climate-ice-hydrological processes coupling model should be set up,in order to accurately assess the glacier melt water resources,which is an important basis for the green silk road construction.

关 键 词：青藏高原 亚洲水塔 干旱区 冰川融水径流 全球变暖 水资源 

分 类 号：TV2[水利工程]