“亚洲水塔”变化对下游水资源的连锁效应  

Cascading Impacts of Asian Water Tower Change on Downstream Water Systems

作　　者：汤秋鸿[1,2] 刘星才 周园园[1] 王杰[1,2] 运晓博 TANG Qiuhong;LIU Xingcai;ZHOU Yuanyuan;WANG Jie;YUN Xiaobo(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2019年第11期1306-1312,共7页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）（XDA20060402）;第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0208)

摘　　要：青藏高原及其周边地区是亚洲大河文明的重要水源地,被称为“亚洲水塔”。“亚洲水塔”变化引起的水资源连锁效应与下游几十亿人民生活和社会发展息息相关,是下游地区实现联合国可持续发展目标的重要影响因素之一。在全球变化背景下,“亚洲水塔”下游流域水资源开发利用强度不断提高,水安全问题日益复杂和突出,“亚洲水塔”变化给下游地区水治理带来新的挑战。“亚洲水塔”变化改变河源区下泄径流,导致冰湖溃决等极端水文事件频发,威胁到下游地区供水安全、防洪安全和生态安全。文章通过分析“亚洲水塔”变化对下游水资源影响及相关研究不足,提出应加强青藏高原环境变化与下游流域水资源研究的结合,发展全流域水循环过程综合集成与模拟技术,阐明流域上下游的关联机制与“亚洲水塔”变化对下游水资源的连锁效应,提出风险应对措施与方案。The“Asian Water Tower(AWT)”is an important water source for downstream Asian countries.The cascading impacts on water resources caused by changes of the AWT are closely associated with the water security for billions of people downstream.The changes of the AWT plays a key role in achieving the sustainable development goals in the downstream regions set by the United Nation General Assembly.In the context of global change,the intensity of water resources development and utilization in downstream rivers has continuously increased,and water resource issues have risen in prominence.The changes of the AWT have brought new challenges to water management in the downstream regions.Environmental changes of the AWT have caused extreme events such as the abrupt changes of discharge from the AWT and glacial lake outbursts,resulted in water supply and floods risks in downstream river basins,affected water supply,flood control,and water environment in the downstream regions.By analyzing the impact of changes of the AWT on the downstream systems and the related research gap,suggestions are made to strengthen integrated study of environmental change of the AWT and water security in the downstream,to advance integrated watershed modeling techniques for the whole basins,and to explore the linkages between the upstream alpine area and downstream water systems.There is an urgent need to understand the cascading impacts of the AWT change on downstream water systems, and to cope with the impacts of the AWT change.

关 键 词：亚洲水塔 青藏高原 下游 水资源 连锁效应 

分 类 号：TU7[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]