行业溢出、动态集聚与城市制造业就业  

Industry Spillovers,Dynamic Agglomeration and Urban Manufacturing Employment in China

作　　者：田政杰 段志民 TIAN Zheng-jie;DUAN Zhi-min(School of statistics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2019年第11期67-75,共9页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目《中等收入者比重统计测度新方法及其应用研究》(15CTJ003);教育部人文社会科学基金项目《传统企业进入新兴产业的时机与模式研究》(17YJC790045);全国统计科学研究项目《参与式贫困识别方法的构建及其实践研究》(2018LY51);中国博士后科学基金第60批面上资助项目《经济政策不确定性及其宏观影响:统计测度与数值模拟》(2016M602229)

摘　　要：文章研究了城市集聚经济对制造业就业的动态影响,将行业内溢出效应和行业间溢出效应纳入统一的动态空间分析框架,测算了丰富的集聚机制途径,对集聚经济中各种机制作用的方式和结果进行了考察。基于此,结合城市以及工业企业数据的实证结果显示,单一行业的发展会对行业的发展产生限制,多样化发展促进了城市制造业就业的增长。在多样化集聚的机制中产业关联显著的促进了产业发展,而技术和劳动力共享的作用并不显著。行业的集聚机制会由于技术类型不同而存在差异。利用所构建的模型,对城市跨行业集聚强度进行测度的结果显示,2002-2013年期间每年多样化集聚对城市产业劳动力的增长作用约为2.56%。The dynamic influence of urban agglomeration economy on manufacturing employment is studied.The spillover effect within the industry and the spillover benefit between industries are integrated into the uniform dynamic spatial equilibrium model,and the various ways and results of the agglomeration economy are investigated.The empirical results combined with urban and industrial enterprise data show that the development of a single industry will limit the development of the industry,and diversified development promotes the long-term growth of urban manufacturing industry.In the mechanism of diversified agglomeration,industrial association significantly promotes industrial development,while the role of technology and labor sharing is not significant.The technology type of the industry has a selection effect on the agglomeration mechanism.Based on the built model,the results of measuring the intensity of urban cross-industry agglomeration show that the effect of annual diversified agglomeration on the growth of urban industrial labor force is about 2.56%from 2002 to 2013.

关 键 词：集聚经济 溢出效应 就业 集聚强度 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]