土地经济驱动功能减弱的理论解释与数据验证  

Theoretical Explanation and Data Verification of the Decreased Driving Function of Land Economy

作　　者：姚志[1] 郑志浩[1] YAO Zhi;ZHENG Zhihao(School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2019年第9期84-92,100,共10页China Land Science

基　　金：农业农村部项目“农村土地承包政策延续与衔接政策问题研究”（05190028）

摘　　要：研究目的:探寻土地经济驱动功能减弱的理论支撑与经验验证。研究方法:差分GMM与系统GMM。研究结果:(1)理论与数据均验证了土地财政对地方城市经济增长的贡献呈现出先升后降的“倒U型”关系,且绝大多数地方城市处于顶点右翼下降阶段;(2)劳动力质量的提升比劳动力数量的增加对经济增长影响更为重要,技术投入与制度创新对地方城市经济增长存在显著正向影响;(3)虽然土地财政存在一定的路径依赖,但并不是永久性地不可改变;(4)相对于东、西部城市来讲,中部城市转变土地财政发展经济模式的过程更为艰难。研究结论:地方政府应该果断摒弃以地谋生的发展模式,推进县域经济持续健康发展,向质量效益并重转型。The purpose of this paper is to explore the theoretical support and empirical verification for the decreased driving function of land economy.The research methods include DGMM and SGMM.The results show that 1)the impact of land finance on local urban economic growth presents an“inverted U”relationship,verified both in theory and by data,and most of the cities are in the decline stage of the right-wing to the peak.2)The improvement of labor quality is more important than the increase of labor quantity;and technological input and institutional innovation have a significant positive impact on local urban economic growth.3)Although there is a certain path dependence on land finance,it is not permanent and can be changed.4)Compared with the eastern and western cities,the transformation of development mode based on land finance is more time-consuming in the cities of central areas.In conclusion,the local government should abandon the development mode of land finance,promote the sustainable and healthy development of county economy,and pay equal attention to the quality and effectiveness.

关 键 词：土地财政 地方城市 经济增长 索罗模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]