现代农业转型发展与食物安全供求趋势研究  

Modern Agricultural Transformation and Trend of Food Supply and Demand in China

作　　者：黄季焜[1] 王济民[2] 解伟 王晓兵[1] 侯玲玲[1] 周慧[2] 盛誉 刘旭[3] Huang Jikun;Wang Jimin;Xie Wei;Wang Xiaobing;Hou Lingling;Zhou Hui;Sheng Yu;Liu Xu(China Center for Agricultural Policy,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国农业政策研究中心,北京100871 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [3]中国工程院,北京100088

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2019年第5期1-9,共9页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“国际化绿色化背景下国家区域食物安全可持续发展战略研究”(2016-ZD-09)

摘　　要：在全球背景下厘清我国未来农业转型方向、生产方式转变路径和食物供求变动趋势,提出现代农业转型发展战略和政策建议。我国农业发展面临着六大挑战,应深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革,优化产品产业结构,改善农产品供求结构,提升农产品质量安全水平。通过大样本农户调研数据分析发现,应不断完善土地流转市场和社会化服务体系来保障现代农业转型发展。面向2035年的农业生产结构调整预测表明,我国农产品的供需失衡现象将趋向突出:饲料自给率将继续下降,食糖和食油的需求缺口将逐渐扩大,畜产品生产和供需缺口将取决于饲料粮贸易政策和草牧业发展政策,但蔬菜和水果依然保持一定的比较优势。This study aims to clarify the direction for agricultural transformation,the transformation path of production,and the trend of food supply and demand in China,and to propose development strategies and policy suggestions for China’s agriculture transformation.Facing six major challenges in agricultural development,China should further promote supply-side structural reform for its agriculture,optimize production structure,improve the supply and demand of agricultural products,and upgrade the quality of these products.After analyzing the panel data of farmer surveys,we propose to promote China’s modern agricultural transformation by improving the land transfer market and the socialized service system.Our projection analyses indicate that the imbalance between supply and demand of many agricultural products in China will be prominent by 2035.China’s feed self-sufficiency rate will continue to decline,and the demand gap for sugar and edible oil will gradually expand.The production of livestock products and the gap between supply and demand will largely depend on the feed grain trade policy and the grassland development policy,while vegetables and fruits still maintain a certain export comparative advantage.

关 键 词：农业生产结构 食物安全 供给 需求 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]