英国在苏伊士运河危机中的决策分析——不对称理论的视角  

Analysis on British Decision Making in Suez Crisis: from the Perspective of Asymmetry Theory

作　　者：徐振伟[1] XU Zhen-wei(Zhou Enlai School of Government,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院

出　　处：《安徽史学》2019年第6期135-144,共10页Historical Research In Anhui

摘　　要：苏伊士运河危机是冷战期间一次重要的多边军事外交危机。英国在这次危机中遭遇了重大失败,其中的关键是英美两国在最后关头的决裂。为何有着“特殊关系”的两国却在最后时刻分裂,而英国的诸多决策又是在何种情况下做出的?战略与意识形态分歧、经济利益以及领导人性格等既有解释并没有给出满意的回答。不对称理论认为权力的不对称导致强国与弱国在关注点、相对地位、两国关系环境以及行为模式等方面的差异,并通过“金规”机制产生结构性错误知觉。结构性错误知觉在英国的决策过程中表现在两方面:一是错误估计了美国支持它使用武力的决心;二是忽略了美国在中东的利益诉求与它并不完全相同。这些结构性错误知觉最终导致了英国在苏伊士运河危机中的惨败。The Suez Crisis was an important multilateral military and diplomatic crisis during the Cold War.Britain suffered a serious defeat in the crisis,which is the key to American break with Britain at the last minute.Why did the two countries which were special relationship split at the last minute,while under what circumstances Britain made several decisions?The former explanation including strategic and ideological differences,economic benefits and leader character didnot give a satisfactory answer.Asymmetry theory was that power asymmetry led to divergence between strong countries and weak countries in the aspects of focus,relative status,relation environment behavior patterns,and structuralism misperception appeared through golden rule mechanism.Structuralism misperception was reflected in two aspects in British decision making process,Britain estimated mistakenly American determination supporting British use of force.At the same time,Britain ignored the different interests between the two countries in Middle East.The structuralism misperception eventually led to the defeat of Britain in Suez crisis.

关 键 词：不对称理论 结构性错误知觉 苏伊士运河危机 英美关系 

分 类 号：K561.5[历史地理—历史学]