应急行动方案决策研究综述  

Review on Emergency Incident Action Plans Decision-making Research

作　　者：王喆[1,2,3] 王世昌 涂圣友 蒋壮 WANG Zhe;WANG Shichang;TU Shengyou;JIANG Zhuang(China Research Center for Emergency Management,WUT,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]安全预警与应急联动技术湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430070 [3]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2019年第5期467-472,484,共7页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71501151);湖北省自然科学基金项目(2016CFB467);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目(2017VI073);国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CTQ022)

摘　　要：科学准确地选用应急决策方法,以支持应急决策者快速高效地制定应急行动方案(incident action plans,IAP),是指导救援行动有序开展和控制突发事件社会危害的关键问题。为此,在分析应急决策过程及其特征的基础上,对现有描述性和规定性应急决策方法在应急行动方案制定中的应用进行了综述。根据突发事件的实际需求和特征,对各应急行动方案决策方法的适用场景进行了分析,提出了规划与调度相集成的应急行动方案决策框架,为在复杂多变的突发事件应急行动方案制定工作中快速选用合适的应急决策方法和操作流程提出了科学分析和判断的依据。The scientific reasonable selection of emergency decision-making methods to support emergency decision makers to quickly and efficiently formulate Incident Action Plans(IAP)is the key to guide the orderly development of rescue operations and control social hazards of emergencies.Therefore,the paper summarizes the application of descriptive and prescriptive emergency decision-making methods in IAP formulation according to emergency decision-making process and its characteristics.Further,based on the actual demands and characteristics of emergency response,the applicable scenarios of IAP decision-making methods are analyzed,an integrated planning and scheduling IAP decision-making framework is established.In conclusion,the research provides a scientific analysis and judgment basis for the rapid selection of appropriate emergency decision-making methods and its operational procedures in the complex and changeable IAP formulation.

关 键 词：应急决策 决策理论 预案 专家知识 规划与调度 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]