中国扶贫战略与2020年后相对贫困线划定——基于理论、政策和数据的分析  

China’s Poverty Alleviation Strategy and the Delineation of the Relative Poverty Line after 2020:An Analysis Based on Theory, Policy and Empirical Data

作　　者：孙久文[1] 夏添 Sun Jiuwen;Xia Tian

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2019年第10期98-113,共16页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社会科学基金专项项目“新时代我国区域协调发展战略的理论深化与实践创新研究”（批准号：18VSJ022）;中国人民大学应用经济学院科学研究基金项目“美国区域科学发展回顾与中美区域经济学发展对比”（批准号：2016000452）的资助

摘　　要：中国在2020年将基本消除绝对贫困,之后,贫困问题由绝对贫困转向相对贫困。由于中国相对贫困现象较为突出,并与绝对贫困存在交叉,这使得以基尼系数为基础的相对贫困测度失真。本文首先通过回顾中国的贫困线调整和扶贫政策演变,分析贫困类型的转变;然后对城乡二元结构未打破背景下的农村相对贫困规模进行测算,提出基尼系数区域化的设想;最后对城乡统筹下的相对贫困线设定进行现实考量,并给出设计方案。即:中国2020年之后的相对贫困线设定应采取两区域、两阶段方法——非沿海地区实施绝对贫困线相对化、沿海地区实施基于居民可支配收入的相对贫困线,并每5年上调一次;2035年中国进入城镇化后期,相对贫困标准整体进入以全民可支配收入为识别基础的阶段。未来贫困治理仍需要在工作培训、区域转型、多维和精准识别上不断提升。Absolute poverty will be eradicated in China by 2020,and relative poverty will be the main type of poverty.Relative poverty in China is more prominent and intersects with absolute poverty,which makes the relative poverty measurement based on Gini coefficient distorted.This article first reviews the adjustment of poverty line and the evolution of poverty alleviation policies in China,and analyzes the transformation of poverty types.Afterwards,it calculates the scale of rural relative impoverished population under the background of urban-rural dual structure,and puts forward the idea of regionalization of Gini coefficient.Finally,it makes a realistic consideration on the setting of relative poverty line under the overall planning of urban-rural integration,and puts forward an implementation plan.The establishment of relative poverty line in China after 2020 should be based on two regional and two-stage methods:the relativization of absolute poverty line in non-coastal areas and the relative poverty line in coastal areas,which should be raised every five years.In 2035,China will enter the post urbanization stage,and the relative poverty standard will enter a stage based on the identification of the disposable income among all people as a whole.In order to ensure the governance of relative poverty,it would be necessary to improve job training,regional transformation,multi-dimensional and accurate identification.

关 键 词：相对贫困线 贫困类型转变 潜在贫困人口 人力资源培育 

分 类 号：F291.3[经济管理—国民经济]