气象因子对油茶鲜果含油率的影响分析及模型构建  

Influence analysis of meteorological factors on oil rate of fresh fruit for Camellia oleifera Abel. and construction of forecasting model

作　　者：彭嘉栋[1] 廖玉芳[1] 蒋元华[1] 黄超 PENG Jia-dong;LIAO Yu-fang;JIANG Yuan-hua;HUANG Chao(Climate Center of Hunan Province,Changsha 410118,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气候中心

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2019年第20期101-104,共4页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖南省科技重大专项（2018NK1030）

摘　　要：利用2009—2017年湖南省不同县市多块油茶(Camellia oleifera Abel.)样地的鲜果含油率资料和同时段邻近气象站资料构建的油茶生长或处理期各阶段气象指标,利用主成分分析方法分析不同阶段气象指标对油茶鲜果含油率的影响,并基于此建立含油率预测模型。结果表明,果实成熟期、油脂转化和积累高峰期、采摘当年和果实膨大高峰期气象因子对含油率的影响较其他阶段更为显著,温度类指标特别是极端最高气温为影响含油率的主导因子,利用气象因子构建的油茶含油率预测模型具有一定的适用性。Based on the collection and processing of the oil rate data of fresh fruit from multiple Camellia oleifera Abel.sample plots in different county of Hunan province during 2009—2017 and the meteorological indices for each stage of growth and treatment of Camellia oleifera Abel.which computed by the nearby meteorological observation stations’data during the same period,the method of principal component analysis had been used to research the impacts of the meteorological factors in different stages on Camellia oleifera Abel.’s fresh fruit oil rate and a forecasting model were constructed based on above meteorological factors.The results show that the effects of meteorological factors for fruit maturity period,oil transformation and accumulation peak period,the whole year of fruit picking and fruit enlargement peak period on oil content are more significant than other periods and the temperature indices,especially the extreme maximum temperature is the key factor which affecting oil content.The oil content forecasting model constructed base on those factors has a relative high accuracy and can be applied in operation.

关 键 词：气象因子 油茶(Camellia oleifera Abel.) 鲜果含油率 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S794.4[农业科学—林木遗传育种]