页岩气勘探开发风险分析  

Risk analysis of shale gas exploration and development

作　　者：林腊梅[1] 许洋 张金川[2] 韩双彪 LIN Lamei;XU Yang;ZHANG Jinchuan;HAN Shuangbiao(China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China;China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东),山东青岛266580 [2]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [3]中国矿业大学(北京),北京100083

出　　处：《中国矿业》2019年第11期59-65,共7页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目资助（编号：ZR2014DL004）;页岩气资源战略评价重点实验室开放基金项目资助（编号：20171101）;中央高校基本科研业务费专项-中国石油大学（华东）自主创新项目资助(编号：18CX02055A)

摘　　要：国家提出自然资源与生态环境并重的理念,对页岩气勘查开发提出了新要求。页岩气是低品位、高潜能、高投入且高风险的非常规天然气资源。针对我国地质特点,分析阐述了页岩气勘探开发中的地质风险、技术风险、经济风险和环境风险。通过开展平行试验,讨论了地质参数的不确定性;结合页岩气资源采收率低的特点和当前指导性规律认识薄弱的现状,剖析了地质风险。我国页岩气自主核心技术水平能力不断提升,结合工程地质条件,分析了技术在不同地区推广应用中存在的困难;结合我国基础设施完善程度,剖析了技术风险,持续大量的投资和天然气价格波动是主要的经济风险。除此之外,讨论了页岩气开发可能存在的各类环境风险;结合我国南方、北方的人文、地理、地下和地表条件的差异,探讨了页岩气开发可能引起的环境问题及相应对策。分析认为,在页岩气勘探开发的地质工作中,需进一步加强对这些不确定性的认识、描述及分析,加强开展全面的风险评价工作,以帮助决策者做出更为科学的综合判断。China puts forward the idea of paying equal attention to natural resources and ecological environment,and puts forward new requirements for shale gas exploration and development.Shale gas is an unconventional gas resource with low grade,high potential,high investment and high risk.In view of the geological characteristics of China,the geological risk,technical risk,economic risk and environmental risk of shale gas development are analyzed.The uncertainty of geological parameters is discussed through parallel experiments;combined with the low recovery rate of shale gas and the current weak understanding of the guiding laws,the geological risk is analyzed.The core technology level and capability in China is continuously improving,combined with engineering geological conditions,the difficulties in popularization and application of technology in different regions are analyzed.Combined with the perfection of infrastructure in China,the technical risk is analyzed.Continuous large investment and natural gas price fluctuation are the main economic risks.The possible environmental risks of shale gas development are discussed;based on the differences of the humanities,geography,underground and surface conditions in southern and northern China,the possible environmental problems and corresponding countermeasures for shale gas development are discussed.In the geological work of shale gas exploration and development,it is necessary to further strengthen the understanding,description and analysis of these uncertainties,and to strengthen the comprehensive risk assessment to help the decision-makers to make a more scientific and comprehensive judgment.

关 键 词：页岩气 自然资源 生态环境 风险评价 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] TE1[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]