基于双重Logistic曲线模型汽车保有量预测方法  

Prediction Method of Car Ownership Based on Double Logistic Curve Model

作　　者：戴学臻[1] 王妍 彭志鹏 成洪博 DAI Xuezhen;WANG Yan;PENG Zhipeng;CHENG Hongbo(School of Highway,Chang an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第11期21-26,共6页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

摘　　要：经济发展和人民生活水平提高使得汽车保有就急速上升,从而引发城市交通拥堵、能源短缺、环境汚染等诸多问题,解决这些问题的前提是对未来年小汽车保有量客观、准确的预测。为了保证预测的准确性,采用双重Logistic曲线模型预测人口户数,通过分析人口户数与小汽车保有量之间的定量关系确定未来年小汽车保有量最大值范围;并结合西安市历年小汽车历史数据对未来西安市小汽车保有量进行预测。预测结果表明:该方法能根据人口增长趋势客观,动态地反映未来汽车保有量的发展趋势。西安市小汽车保有量还会快速増长,未来年小汽车保有量极值将达到626万辆左右。The development of economy and the improvement of people's living standard led to a rapid growth of car ownership,which caused many problems such as urban traffic jam,energy shortage and environmental pollution.The premise of solving these problems was the objective and accurate prediction of car ownership in the future.In order to ensure the accuracy of prediction,the double Logistic curve model was used to predict the number of households.By analyzing the quantitative relationship between the number of households and the number of cars,the maximum range of car ownership in the future was determined.Finally,combining with the historical data of cars in Xi'an over the years*the future car ownership in Xi'an was forecasted.The prediction results show that the proposed method can objectively and dynamically reflect the development trend of car ownership in the future according to the trend of population growth.The car ownership in Xi'an will also grow rapidly,and the extreme value of car ownership will reach about 6.26 million in the coming year.

关 键 词：交通工程 Logistic曲线 人口数量 汽车保有量 类比分析法 预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]