干支流洪水作用下的水利工程洪水漫顶风险率计算研究  

Study on the Calculation of Flood Overtopping Risk Rate of Hydraulic Engineering under the Action of Mainstream and Tributary Floods

作　　者：甘富万[1,2] 张华国 覃丽娜 高扬 黄宇明 肖良 GAN Fuwan;ZHANG Huaguo;QIN Lina;GAO Yang;HUANG Yuming;XIAO Liang(College of Civil Architectural Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China;Key Laboratory of Engineering Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《水力发电》2019年第11期40-44,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51178124);广西自然科学基金项目(2018GXNSFAA138042);广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2018KY0025)

摘　　要：洪水漫顶是影响水利工程安全的一个重要因素。干支流交汇处支流上水利工程不仅受到支流洪水的直接影响还会受到干流洪水顶托的影响,采用Copula-Monte Carlo模拟方法构建干支流洪水作用下大坝的洪水漫顶率计算模型,并分析不同Copula函数、不同干支流洪水相关性对漫顶风险率的影响。以桂平航运枢纽为例,研究结果表明:最优的Clayton Copula计算的洪水漫顶率为1.38×10-4;由于干支流洪水间相关性较弱,不同Copula函数对洪水漫顶的影响并不明显,GH、AMH、CClayton、Frank Copula都会一定程度地低估洪水漫顶风险;随着干支流洪水流量相关性的增强,洪水漫顶率也会相应的增加。Flood overtopping is an important factor affecting the safety of water conservancy projects.The water conservancy project at upper branch near the intersection of main and tributary rivers is not only directly affected by tributary flood but also by the backwater effect of main stream flood.The Copula-Monte Carlo simulation method is used to construct the calculation model of dam flood overtopping rate under the action of mainstream and tributary flood,and the influences of different Copula functions and different correlation of mainstream and tributary flood on overtopping risk rate are analyzed.Taking Guiping Navigation Control Project as an example,the research shows that,(a)the flood overtopping rate calculated by the optimal Clayton Copula is 1.38×10-4;(b)because of the weak correlation between mainstream and tributary floods,the influence of different Copula functions on flood overtopping is not obvious,in which,the GH,AMH,CClayton and Frank Copula all underestimate flood overtopping risk to a certain extent;and(c)with the increase of the correlation between mainstream and tributary floods,the flood overtopping rate will increase correspondingly.

关 键 词：洪水漫顶 Copula-Monte CARLO模拟 干支流洪水 桂平航运枢纽 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]