户籍管制与流动人口家庭化迁移——基于2016年流动人口监测数据的经验分析  

Household Registration Control and Family Migration——Empirical Analysis Based on Migrant Population Monitoring Data in 2016

作　　者：刘欢 席鹏辉[2] HU Huan;XI Penghui(Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488;National Academy of Economic Strategy,CASS,Beijing 100028)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2019年第11期82-95,共14页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“中国产能过剩的化解难题研究:从纳税大户角度的一个激励性解释”(71803190)

摘　　要：在理论分析户籍管制对流动人口家庭迁移完整性影响的基础上,本文利用213个城市面板数据与2016年流动人口监测数据进行实证检验。结果显示,户籍管制抑制了低技能、流动时间较短与新生代流动人口的家庭完整迁移,这种负向影响在跨省迁移中表现得更为突出;而搭载在户籍制度上的教育、医疗等社会福利则是其抑制流动人口家庭迁移完整性的主要影响因素。经过一系列稳健性检验后上述结论依然成立。基于实证发现,剥离依附于户籍制度上的"隐性"社会福利供给,有利于促进流动人口家庭迁移,增加城市劳动力的供给规模;而破除户籍制度约束的关键举措仍是深化财政体制改革,即建立"以人为主体"的转移支付制度与社会福利供给机制。Based on the theoretical analysis of the effects of household registration control on the complete family migration of migrants,the paper uses 213 city-level panel data and migrant population monitoring data in 2016 to conduct an empirical test.The results show that the household registration control inhibits the complete migration of families with low skills,short travel time and younger populations.This negative effect is even more pronounced in inter-provincial migration.Social welfare such as education,medical care and housing which are carried on the household registration system is the main mechanism.After a series of robustness tests,the above conclusions are still valid.Based on empirical findings,the "recessive" social welfare supply attached to the household registration system is conducive to promoting the migration of migrant families and increasing the supply of urban labor.However,the key measure to break the restraint of the household registration system is to deepen the reform of the financial system and establish a "human-centered" transfer payment system and a social welfare supply mechanism.

关 键 词：户籍管制 流动人口 完整迁移 异质性 城市劳动力 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]