我国粮食主产区农业碳排放测度与减排压力研究  

Measurement of Agricultural Carbon Emission and Pressure of Emission Reduction in Main Grain-producing Areas of China

作　　者：何慧爽 付帮杰 HE Huishuang;FU Bangjie(School of Management and Economics,North China University of Water Resources and Power,Zhengzhou Henan 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学管理与经济学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2019年第11期99-104,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于虚拟资源流动的粮食主产区农业生态补偿机制研究”(16BJY026)

摘　　要：论文利用IPCC经典碳排放计算理论,从农业物质投入、水稻种植、动物反刍三个方面对粮食主产区的农业碳排放进行计算,并基于灰色预测模型和低碳目标情景对农业碳排放和减排压力进行了测度与对比。结果表明:粮食主产区各地区农业碳排放总量趋于增长,但碳排放强度均处于下降趋势,农业碳排放来源结构占比按高低排序为农业物质投入、动物反刍和水稻种植。以碳强度减排目标为基准的低碳目标情景对粮食主产区农业碳减排带来的压力仍然存在,内蒙古、吉林、辽宁3个地区的碳减排压力尤为突出。基于此,应合理减少农业物质投入,用有机肥料代替化学肥料,促进节能减排技术的应用,合理调整牲畜养殖模式,提高农户的低碳意识。Based on the classical IPCC carbon emission calculation theory, the agricultural carbon emissions in the main grainproducing areas were calculated from three aspects: agricultural material input, rice cultivation and animal rumination. By using grey prediction model and low carbon target scenario, the agricultural carbon emissions and emission reduction pressure were calculated and compared. The results showed that the total agricultural carbon emissions in main grain producing areas tended to increase, but the intensity of carbon emissions was declining. The source structure of agricultural carbon emissions ranked as agricultural material input, animal rumination and rice planting. The low-carbon target scenario based on carbon intensity reduction targets still exerts pressure on agricultural carbon emission reduction in main grain-producing areas, especially in Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Liaoning. Based on this, we should reasonably reduce the input of agricultural materials, replace chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers, promote the application of energy saving and emission reduction technology, rationally adjust livestock breeding mode, and improve farmers’ low carbon awareness.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 农业碳排放 碳减排 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]