电器电子产品废弃量估算方法再评估  

Re-Examination on Estimation Methods for WEEE Generation in China

作　　者：黄慧婷 童昕[1] 蔡毅[2] 田晖[2] HUANG Huiting;TONG Xin;CAI Yi;TIAN Hui(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;China Household Electric Appliance Research Institute,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]中国家用电器研究院,北京100010

出　　处：《生态经济》2019年第11期211-216,229,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划固废资源化专项“产品全生命周期识别溯源体系及绩效评价技术”之“产品全生命周期识别、评估体系及集成示范应用”(2018YFC1902701)

摘　　要：论文对比分析了市场供给A模型和保有量系数法在中国电器电子产品废弃量估算中的差异,并结合国内电子废物正规处理厂的抽样数据,应用Weibull模型估计了产品的使用寿命分布。研究发现:(1)两种方法对电视机、洗衣机和冰箱的废弃量估算结果接近;(2)保有量系数法难以获取机构用户废弃量数据,会导致对空调这类机构保有量大的产品的预测值偏低;(3)市场供给A模型易受水货、山寨等灰色市场影响,对电脑、手机等市场活跃产品的预测值显著偏低。基于Weibull分布的市场供给A模型,2014年、2015年正规处理厂中电视机的回收拆解率接近200%,洗衣机、电脑、电冰箱的回收拆解率在20%左右,空调的回收拆解率仅为5%。结论建议中国应针对自身电器电子产品市场的特点,合理建构废弃量估算方法体系,为处理设施规划、回收体系评价和生产者责任实施提供科学依据。This article compares the volume of waste electrical and electronic equipment estimated by market-supply A model and market penetration model.We use Weibull model to characterize the expected life span of products based on the sample data from formal e-waste recycling plants.The result shows:(1)The estimations of the two models are close with each other regarding three kinds of large household consumer electronics,such as TV sets,washing machines,and refrigerators.(2)It is difficult for market penetration model to obtain institutional user waste data,which will lead to low predictive value of products with large ownership of such institutions as air conditioners.(3)Market-supply A model is susceptible to the influence of gray market such as aquatic goods and shanzhai,and its forecast value for active products such as computers and mobile phones is significantly lower.With market-supply A model based on Weibull distribution,In 2014 and 2015,the recycling rate of TV sets in formal processing plants was close to 200%,washing machines,computers and refrigerators were around 20%,and air conditioners was only 5%.Based on the conclusions,we suggested that China should reasonably construct a waste estimation method system according to the characteristics of its own electrical and electronic products market,so as to provide a scientific basis for the planning of treatment facilities,the evaluation of recycling system and the implementation of producer responsibility.

关 键 词：废弃电器电子产品(WEEE) 市场供给A模型 保有量系数法 Weibull模型 产品寿命 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程]