1961—2010年青藏高原气候变化特征分析  

Climate Change Characteristics in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2010

作　　者：徐丽娇 胡泽勇[2,3] 赵亚楠[1] 洪潇宇 XU Lijiao;HU Zeyong;ZHAO Ya'nan;HONG Xiaoyu(Chifeng Meterology Service,Chifeng 024000,Inner Mongolia,China;Key Laboratory of Land Process and Clinate Change in Cold and Arid Regions Envirmengtal and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]赤峰市气象局,内蒙古赤峰024000 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京100101

出　　处：《高原气象》2019年第5期911-919,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA2006010101);中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目(QYZDJ-SSSW-DQC019);中国科学院陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室开放基金项目(LPCC201308);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505701);国家自然科学基金项目(91837208,41661144043)

摘　　要：利用1961-2010年青藏高原及其周边地区158个气象站温度(包括平均温度、最低和最高温度)、降水和风速资料,对青藏高原的气候变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)1961-2010年青藏高原主体正在变暖变湿,但是高原东侧部分地区正在变暖变干,同时高原整体风速都在减小。(2)升温主要是夜间的最低温度贡献的。不同地区升温速率有差异,中部地区高于东部地区;平均温度和最高温度分别在1994年和1997年发生突变,突变后升温速率明显加快;三种温度都存在准8年周期震荡,其他短周期及更长周期震荡表现不一致。(3)降水量空间分布上表现为从东南向西北逐级减少,并且出现过多次突变,突变时间分别为1965年、1977年和1995年,突变前后降水的变化速率明显不同,降水存在准4年和准10年周期震荡。风速存在18~20年周期震荡。(4)青藏高原平均温度、最低温度及最高温度EOF分解的第一载荷向量均表现出全区一致的正值,中心区位于94°E97°E一带,说明青藏高原腹地是平均温度、最低温度及最高温度变化最敏感的地区。(5)平均温度、最低温度及最高温度EOF分解的第二载荷向量大体表现出高原主体与东部以及北部边缘地带变化趋势相反,即高原主体升温(降温)时,东部及北部边缘地带是降温(升温)的。Based on 158 station observations of temperature(including average,lowest and highest temperature),precipitation and wind speed in and around Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)from 1961 to 2010,the climate change characteristics in QTP were analyzed.The results are as follows:(1)The main body of QTP was getting significantly warmer and wetter,while the wind speed of the plateau was decreasing.But some parts of the eastern QTP were warming and drying.(2)The temperature rise was mainly contributed by the lowest temperature at night.The heating rates varied in different regions and it was higher in the central QTP than that in the east.The average and maximum temperatures had abrupt changes in 1994 and 1997,respectively.The rising rate was obviously accelerated after the mutation.There were quasi-8-year oscillations in all three temperatures,while other shorter-and longer-period oscillations were inconsistent.(3)The spatial distribution of precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest,and there were several abrupt changes,which occurred in 1965,1977 and 1995,respectively.The change rate of precipitation before and after the abrupt change was obviously different.There are quasi-4-year and quasi-10-year oscillations in precipitation and the wind speed had 18~20 year oscillation.(4)The first load vector of EOF decomposition of the average,the lowest and the highest temperature of QTP showed the same positive value in the whole region,and the center area was located in the area of 94°E97°E,which indicated that the hinterland of QTP was the most sensitive areas of the average,lowest and highest temperature changes.(5)The second load vector of EOF decomposition of average,lowest and highest temperature generally showed that the main body of the plateau was opposite to that of the eastern and northern marginal regions.That is,when the main body of the plateau was heating up(cooling),the eastern and northern fringes were cooling(warming).

关 键 词：青藏高原 温度 降水量 风速 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]