1951-2016年中缅边境保山市疟疾发病时间序列阶段性分析  

Time series and phase analysis of malaria incidence in the City of Baoshan on the China-Myanmar border from 1951-2016

作　　者：段磊 郑金鑫 茅光耀 王多全 官亚宜 肖宁 DUAN Lei;ZHENG Jin-xin;MAO Guang-yao;WANG Duo-quan;GUAN Ya-yi;XIAO Ning(National Institute of Parasitic Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research,WHO Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases,National Joint Research Center for Tropical Diseases,Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology,National Health Commission,Shanghai 200025,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所国家热带病研究中心世界卫生组织热带病合作中心国家级热带病国际联合研究中心国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室

出　　处：《中国病原生物学杂志》2019年第9期1034-1037,共4页Journal of Pathogen Biology

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发项目(No.2016YFC1200504)

摘　　要：目的分析云南省保山市疟疾发病在时间上的阶段性变化特征,为开展消除疟疾及消除后的监测提供参考。方法通过文献检索,收集云南省保山市1951-2016年疟疾年发病例数及发病率数据。建立以干预措施及时间为影响变量的时间序列结构性模型,分析不同参数条件下疟疾发病率时间序列的结构特征。利用当地预防和控制措施的实施作为趋势变量,结合时间序列结构方法,分析66年来收集的疟疾数据变化的多个结构阶段。结果保山市疟疾疫情在时间上的变化是不平稳的,单位根检验拒绝平稳性零假设(P=0.0003<0.05)。保山市疟疾疫情在历史上曾出现7个阶段性的变化,以干预措施为回归变量的时间序列结构性模型较好地拟合了云南保山疟疾发病率在时间上的变化,分别为1951-1952年、1952-1959年、1959-1968年、1968-1975年、1975-1986年、1986-2009年及2009-2016年。从结构模型来看,有三个上升期:1951-1952年、1975-1986年和1986-2009年,但整体发病率呈下降趋势。结论采用干预措施为回归变量的时间序列结构性模型较好地拟合了云南保山疟疾发病率在时间上的变化规律,预测效果好,可为进一步制定预防输入和再传播措施提供参考。Objective To analyze trends in malaria incidence in the City of Baoshan,Yunnan Province in order to provide a reference for malaria elimination and post-elimination surveillance.Methods Data on malaria cases and incidence in the City of Baoshan,Yunnan Province from 1951-2016 were collected from the literature.A time series structural model with prevention and control measures and time as the influencing variables was created to analyze trends in malaria incidence with different parameters.In conjunction with the structural time series model,multiple phases of changes in malaria data collected from over 66 years were analyzed with the implementation of local prevention and control measures as a trend variable.Results Trends in malaria incidence in the City of Baoshan varied from 1951-2016.A unit root test rejected the null hypothesis of stationarity(P=0.0003<0.05).There were seven phases of malaria incidence(1951-1952,1952-1959,1959-1968,1968-1975,1975-1986,1986-2009,and 2009-2016)in the City of Baoshan,which fit a structural time series model with prevention and control measures as a regression variable.The structural model revealed periods of increased incidence(1951-1952,1975-1986,and 1986-2009),but incidence tended to decrease overall.Conclusion A structural time series model with prevention and control measures as a regression variable fits with trends in malaria incidence in the City of Baoshan,Yunnan Province,and this finding can help to formulate malaria control strategies.

关 键 词：疟疾 发病率 时间序列 结构模型 边境 

分 类 号：R531.3[医药卫生—内科学]