基于改进尖点突变模型的化工事故致因分析  

Cause analysis of chemical accidents based on improved cusp catastrophe model

作　　者：裴甲坤 王飞跃[1] 郭换换 杨宸宇 裴重伟 PEI Jiakun;WANG Feiyue;GUO Huanhuan;YANG Chenyu;PEI Chongwei(Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology,Central South University,Changsha Hunan 410075,China;Jining Work Safety Technology Service Center,Jining Shandong 272000,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所,湖南长沙410075 [2]济宁市安全生产技术服务中心,山东济宁272000

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2019年第7期20-25,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：湖南省2016年度安全生产专项资金资助(201613);湖南省2017年度安全生产专项资金资助(201720)

摘　　要：为更好地反映化工事故发生过程中事故致因因素的连续变化引起的系统安全状态的突然变化,分别将生产系统中的固有危险源及生产过程中的不安全因素作为导致化工事故发生的内因及外因,分析化工事故的致因机制;改进传统的事故致因尖点突变模型,将系统安全性作为状态变量,固有危险源和不安全因素的危险性作为控制变量,综合考虑人-机-管-环-料-能对于系统安全性的影响;利用改进后的事故致因尖点突变模型研究化工事故致因过程和事故致因条件,并通过相关事故案例验证该模型的可行性。结果表明:化工事故是由固有危险源和不安全因素综合作用引起的,当二者危险性达到一定程度后,系统状态由安全状态突变为事故状态。In order to better reflect the sudden change of system safety state caused by the continuous changes of accident-causing factors in the process of chemical accidents,analysis was made on the cause mechanism of chemical accidents with inherent hazards of the production system and the unsafe factors in the production process being taken as internal and external causes;then the traditional accident-causing cusp catastrophe model was improved with system safety being the state variable and inherent hazards and unsafe factors as the control variable to evaluate the influence of people-machine-administrationenvironment-material-energy on the system safety comprehensively;finally,the process and conditions of chemical accident causes were studied based on the improved model and its feasibility was verified through relevant accident cases. The results show that chemical accidents were caused by a combination of inherent hazards and unsafe factors and the system state would change from safe to accident when the risks of these two factors reach a certain level.

关 键 词：化工事故 固有危险源 不安全因素 事故致因机制 尖点突变理论 

分 类 号：X928.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]