安全感知、发展诉求与菲律宾对华政策转变  

Security Perception,Development Requirement,and the Adjustment of Philippines’ China Policy

作　　者：席桂桂[1,2] 凌胜利 XI Guigui;LING Shengli

机构地区：[1]四川外国语大学国际关系学院 [2]联合国与可持续发展问题研究中心 [3]外交学院 [4]国际安全研究中心

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2019年第5期138-152,158,共16页Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：2019年重庆市社科项目“周边国家对华外交再平衡对重庆参与‘一带一路’经贸合作影响研究”(2019YBGJ021);四川外国语大学2018年度科研项目“‘一带一路’背景下周边国家对华外交政策再平衡研究”(SISU2018020);霍英东教育基金会项目“中美亚太主导权竞争与亚太国家的战略选择”(161088)

摘　　要：2016年杜特尔特当选菲律宾总统以来,南海争端降温,中菲双方元首实现互访,致力于构建全面战略合作关系,中菲关系进入新的发展阶段。中菲关系何以在两三年间发生重大转向,取得显著成果,对此既有研究主要从结构现实主义、新古典现实主义、国内政治、决策心理等角度展开分析。本文通过构建"安全感知-发展诉求"分析框架,认为杜特尔特政府认识到菲律宾所处的国际安全环境已然发生重要变化,其战略偏好从"安全感知"转向"发展诉求",因而对华外交的重心也从注重南海问题转向加强经贸合作,更多地突出其发展诉求。正是这种战略偏好的转变促使菲律宾政府大幅调整对华政策,中菲关系也迎来了稳定向好的新局面。中国需要认真对待菲律宾对华政策转向所带来的机遇,努力谋求稳定的地区安全架构,扩大双边利益交汇,进而提升地区安全预期,不断推进地区互利合作,实现共同发展。Since Rodrigo Duterte elected as the president of Philippines in 2016,China-Philippines bilateral relations have brought a certain level of success,especially compared with the former Aquino government,such as the relatively peaceful South China Sea water;both President Xi and President Duterte has paid a state visit to each other;and the decision to upgrade their relations to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. As to the reasons why such a great deal of success achieved by China and the Philippines in such a short term,scholars contribute a lot from different perspectives such as the Structural Realism Theory,the Neo-classical Realism Theory,Domestic Political reasons,and also psychological factors. We develop a framework of a "security perception and development appeal nexus"to explain the policy shift. This essay argues that based on his estimation of the East Asian regional security structure situation,president Duterte’s strategic preference has shifted from security gain to development requirements,and this shift promotes the development-driven China-Philippines relations,contributing to building a more friendly Philippines partner. Ending with a discussion on how should China take this opportunity to strive for both a relatively steady regional security arrangements and overlapping development interests. With the Philippines as an example,China could create a more amicable,secure and prosperous neighborhood.

关 键 词：安全感知 发展诉求 战略偏好 菲律宾 中菲关系 周边外交 

分 类 号：D834.10[政治法律—政治学]