制度赡养率基尼系数与养老保险基金中央调剂改革  

Gini Coefficient of Dependency Rate of the Basic Old-Age Insurance for Urban Employees and the Reform of the Central Adjustment System of Pension Fund

作　　者：金刚[1] 张秋秋[2] Jin Gang;Zhang Qiuqiu

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学人口研究所 [2]沈阳大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2019年第9期108-120,共13页Public Finance Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目“企业养老保险政策缴费率下调的基金收支平衡效应研究”（17YJA840006）

摘　　要：本文提出制度赡养率基尼系数,用以度量制度赡养率的地区间差异程度。计算结果表明,2007-2016年城镇职工基本养老保险制度赡养率基尼系数从0.2011提高至0.2557,制度赡养率省际差异程度明显扩大。基于不同的制度赡养率调整目标,我们设计了两个养老保险基金中央调剂方案,测算中央调剂制度对制度赡养率基尼系数的影响,并与中央调剂现行方案进行比较。测算结果发现,方案一和方案二分别可以使2015年的制度赡养率基尼系数从0.2727下降至0.0893和0.0659,现行方案可以使制度赡养率基尼系数下降至0.1965,如果上解比例提高至5%,制度赡养率基尼系数可以下降至0.1275。将平衡省际制度赡养率差异作为政策核心目标、基于人均缴费水平计算调剂规模以及逐步提高上解比例应成为中央调剂制度的未来改革方向。This paper proposes Gini coefficient of dependency rate which can be used to measure the deviation degree of dependency rate of all provinces. The result indicates that Gini coefficient of dependency rate has increased from 0.2011 to 0.2557 between 2007 and 2016, which means the deviation extent of dependency rate is expanding. Based on the adjustment aim of Gini coefficient of dependency rate, we design two plans of central adjustment system and calculate the effect on Gini coefficient of dependency rate. We also calculate the effect of current central adjustment plan. The results show that the first plan and the second plan can lower Gini coefficient of dependency rate of 2015 from 0.2727 to 0.0893 and 0.0659 respectively, while the result of current central adjustment plan is 0.1965, which would be 0.1275 if the ratio of pension turned over by provinces increases to 5%. Achieving the balance of Gini coefficient of dependency rate, calculating pension adjustment scale by per capita contribution level and increasing the ratio of pension turned over gradually should be the direction of reformation of the central adjustment system.

关 键 词：制度赡养率 基尼系数 中央调剂 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]