PPP落地快慢：地方政府能力、领导者特征与项目特点——基于项目的连续时间事件史分析  

Explaining PPP Landing Speed: Local Government Capacity, Leadership, and Project Characteristics——A Continuous-Time Event History Analysis

作　　者：谈婕[1] 郁建兴[1] 赵志荣[2] Tan Jie;Yu Jianxing;Zhao Zhirong(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,310058,China;Hubert H.Humphrey School of Public Affairs,University of Minnesota,Minnesota,55414,USA)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310058 [2]美国明尼苏达大学公共事务学院,美国明尼苏达55414

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2019年第4期72-82,172,共12页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目（18ZDA116)

摘　　要：近年来,PPP再度成为中国地方政府基础设施融资和公共服务供给的重要工具。在政府大力推进PPP的同时,PPP项目落地速度却较慢,难以有效吸引社会资本。本文关注以项目发起时间和项目签约时间为首尾的PPP落地时长,试图估计PPP的累积落地率并寻找影响PPP落地的影响因素。首先,我们基于财政部2014—2017年发起的12579个PPP项目数据,采用Kaplan-Meier方法拟合生存曲线,发现PPP的累积落地率较低。项目发起后一年内,累积落地率仅为8.4%,三年内也不超过20%。其次,我们建立了一个以地方政府能力、地方领导者特征和项目特点为核心的分析框架,并采用Cox比例风险回归模型,做连续时间事件史的分析,探寻影响PPP落地时长的因素。模型结果显示:政府财政能力和组织能力积极地影响了PPP落地速度;市长的学历和任期与PPP落地快慢正相关,而市长的年龄与PPP落地快慢负相关;相比于其它项目,传统基础设施类的项目落地速度更快。This article estimates the accumulative PPP landing rate in China,and examines the determinants of PPP landing speed,which are affected by local government capacity,leadership,and project characteristics.We use the Kaplan-Meier model to estimate the accumulated PPP landing rate.Then we conduct a continuous-time event history analysis on the duration of PPP formation,with data of 12,579 projects initiated between 2014 and 2017.First,we estimate the PPP accumulative landing rate.Within the first 12 months,only 8.2 percent of PPP projects can have their contracts signed;the percentage raises to less than 20 percent within three years.Second,we examine how local government capacity,leadership,and project characteristics affect the duration of PPP formation with Cox proportional hazards regressions.We find that fiscal capacity,organizational capacity,and past experiences of local governments positively affect the speed of PPP formation.For leaders,higher education level and longer term of office are associated with faster PPP landing,while approaching the age limit has a negative impact.Projects with traditional physical infrastructure are found to have a smoother landing process comparing to others.The research has some caveats in selecting independent variables about local government capacity,in particular,fiscal and managerial capacity,due to data limitations.Thus,we create a new measure—the accumulative PPP landing rate—to evaluate the landing speed at the aggregate level.And we develop a framework to understand the landing speed at the project level.Based on our findings,we provide policy recommendations regarding the promotion of PPP landing.This research adds a procedural lens to the existing PPP adoption literature and introduces the method of continuous-time event history analysis to this research field.

关 键 词：PPP 落地 政府能力 领导者特征 事件史分析 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学]