资本账户开放、外汇净资产与福利变动  

Capital Account Openness, Foreign Reserves and Welfare Analysis

作　　者：温兴春 龚六堂[1] Wen Xingchun;Gong Liutang

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2019年第10期30-41,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：北京大学数量经济与数理金融教育部重点实验室资助

摘　　要：本文通过在开放的小国经济体中引入资本管制,定量地对比了资本管制和开放条件下国内外冲击对中国宏观经济波动和居民福利的影响。数值模拟结果表明,中国实行资本管制有助于减少国际冲击对国内宏观经济的影响,促进国内经济稳定;而在面临国内冲击时,资本管制改善了净出口的同时,损害了居民消费,因此,政策收益很小;当全部冲击存在时,资本管制总体的政策效果依然可观。当资本账户开放时,同样的国内外冲击会导致本国居民外汇资产变动幅度变大,不利于汇率及其他宏观经济变量的稳定,最终造成居民福利的损失。此外,本文还发现,持有外汇资产的规模会影响资本管制的福利效果。持有外汇资产规模越大,实施资本管制对居民福利的改进越大。这表明,在存在大量外汇资产时,若过早取消资本管制,将造成巨大的社会福利损失。因此,取消资本管制应慎行。This paper quantitatively compares the effects of domestic and international shocks on the macroeconomic volatility and households"welfare under the models with and without capital control,by incorporating capital control policy into a small open economy.The simulation results suggest that China's capital control can help reduce the macroeconomic volatility caused by the international shocks and increase macroeconomic stability.However,while facing domestic shocks,capital controls may improve net exports while damaging household consumption,so policy benefits are very limited.With the presence of both shocks,the overall effect of capital controls is still considerable.In the situation without capital control,the same domestic and international shocks can cause more movements of foreign asset holding by the household,and the exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables may become more volatile,then leading to welfare loss of the household.Besides,this study also finds that the size of foreign reserves will affect the welfare improvement of capital control policy.The more foreign reserves that the central bank holds,the more the welfare improvement of implementing capital control.As a result,the welfare loss of opening the capital account will be large considering the fact that the Chinese central bank holds too much foreign reserves.Therefore,we should be cautious about capital account liberalization.

关 键 词：资本管制 外汇资产 经济波动 福利分析 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]