开放经济下中国货币政策名义锚的选择研究——基于石油因素的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型  

Research on the Choice of Nominal Anchor for China’s Monetary Policy in an Open Economy——New Keynesian DSGE Model Based on Oil Factor

作　　者：王云清 潘文捷 隋新玉 Wang Yunqing;Pan Wenjie;Sui Xinyu

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计金融学院 [2]上海对外经贸大学 [3]上海邦德职业技术学院

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2019年第4期62-87,共26页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“国际大宗商品价格波动的宏观经济效应、驱动因素及稳定政策研究”(15CJY064)的资助

摘　　要：本文立足于新凯恩斯主义分析框架,从货币政策泰勒规则反应式出发,通过构建包含石油因素的小型开放经济新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,采用贝叶斯方法估计模型以及运用反事实仿真和福利损失等方法对我国货币政策目标进行油价冲击下的政策效果比较分析。数值模拟结果显示:盯住以油价为代表的"暂时性"价格波动因素的标题通胀,效果要劣于单纯盯住核心通胀,表明央行在制定货币政策时需重点关注核心通胀而非标题通胀;对于开放程度日益提升的中国经济而言,汇率目标作为名义锚仍将是我国货币政策的重要选择,实施有管理的浮动汇率制要比实施完全浮动汇率制更能有效减缓经济的波动,并对改善社会福利的效果更好。综合而言,采取核心通胀与汇率的"混合型"目标作为名义锚可充当央行货币决策的"操作指引"。In the view of the Taylor Rule of monetary policy,this paper proposes a small open economy version of DSGE model integrating the exchange rate preference under a New Keynesian perspective.The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques while by incorporating various other methods such as impulse response,variance decomposition,and counterfactual experiments,to search for China’s monetary policy rules to cope with oil price shocks.The contributions could be summarized as follows:Firstly,both the non-core inflation monetary policy and core inflation monetary policy that are simultaneously pegged to oil prices fluctuations are inferior to the monetary policy purely pegged to core inflation,implying that the monetary policy should focus on core inflation instead of headline inflation.Secondly,with the increasing openness of China’s economy,it is significant to choose the exchange rate targeting as a nominal anchor for its monetary policy,so this paper analyzes theoretically that managed floating rate system resulting in a less economic fluctuation as well as improvement of social welfare is the good choice of China with respect to fully floating exchange rate system.Overall,the finding shows that the adoption of a monetary policy that targets on both core inflation and exchange rate is obviously more valuable to the People’s Bank of China.

关 键 词：货币政策 名义锚 通货膨胀目标制 汇率目标制 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]