改革开放40年中国绿色增加值演化趋势与结构分解  

Evolution trend and structural decomposition of China’s green value-added during forty years of reform and opening-up

作　　者：范金 万伟 袁小慧[1,2] FATEMEH Ranaei FAN Jin;WAN Wei;YUAN Xiao-hui;FATEMEH Ranaei(Research Center for the Study of Economic Development Quality,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037,China;Research Center for Decision Consulting,Jiangsu Administration Institute,Nanjing Jiangsu 210009,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济发展质量研究中心,江苏南京210037 [2]江苏省行政学院决策咨询研究中心,江苏南京210009 [3]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2019年第10期79-89,共11页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“新常态背景下中国经济增长质量的演化趋势与对策研究”(批准号:14AZD085);国家自然科学基金面上项目“工业增加值率的转型动态研究与政策模拟:以长三角地区制造业为例”(批准号:71373106)

摘　　要：改革开放40年不仅是中国经济高速发展史,而且也是中国环境污染和环境治理变迁史:环境污染蔓延和初步治理I阶段(1978—1992年)、环境污染加剧和规模化治理II阶段(1992—2002年)、环境污染恶化和综合治理III阶段(2002—2012年)、环境污染适度控制和生态文明建设IV阶段(2012—2017年)。本文通过构建1978—2017年拓展环境污染的中国非竞争型投入产出表,探讨了中国绿色增加值演化趋势和结构分解问题。主要研究结论:第一,在40年的高速经济增长过程中,污染产生系数总体上呈不断增大趋势,绿色增加值指数也在持续降低;第二,结构分解显示出投资和出口在改革开放40年的经济增长中扮演着关键作用,但伴随带来非常严重的污染问题,尤其是II和III阶段;第三,以煤炭采选业为代表的原材料工业和以石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业等为代表的加工制造业在生产过程中产生的污染并未得到有效和及时治理,这些行业污染治理工作在未来一段时期亟待加强。主要研究启示:一是思想上要把绿色发展作为经济发展的核心理念之一,重视环境污染的治理工作,发展“绿色GDP”,尽可能把环境污染的外部成本纳入到国民经济核算的体系中;二是策略上要转变传统的粗放型高污染经济发展模式,转变投资和出口结构,一方面重点投资发展低污染行业,另一方面促进生产高附加值产品的行业的出口,提高人均绿色GDP;三是重点上要持续关注污染较严重的行业的发展,一方面推进升级改造,提升技术水平,减少污染并加强治理,另一方面降低这些行业在国民经济中的占比,提升环境治理效率。The 40 years of reform and opening-up is not only a history of China’s rapid economic development,but also a history of environmental pollution and environmental governance in China:The spread of environmental pollution and initial governance stageⅠ(1978—1992),intensified environmental pollution and scale governance stageⅡ(1992—2002),the deterioration of environmental pollution and comprehensive governance stageⅢ(2002—2012),and moderate control of environmental pollution and eco-civilization construction stageⅣ(2012—2017).This paper explores the evolution trend and structural decomposition of China’s green value-added by constructing a non-competitive input-output table for China’s environmental pollution from 1978 to 2017.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,in the course of 40 years of rapid economic growth,the pollution production coefficient has been increasing continuously,and the green value added index has continued to decrease.Secondly,the structural decomposition shows that investment and exports play a key role in the economic growth of the 40 years of reform and opening-up,but with serious pollution problems,especially in stageⅡand stageⅢ.Thirdly,the pollution generated by the raw material industry(represented by the coal mining and processing industry)and the processing industry(represented by the textiles industry,petroleum refining and nuclear fuel industries)has not been effectively and timely treated.Pollution treatment work of these industries needs to be strengthened in the future.The study obtained the following enlightenment:First,we should ideologically take green development as one of the core concepts of economic development,attach importance to the governance of environmental pollution,develop‘green GDP’,and incorporate the external costs of environmental pollution into the national economic accounting system as far as possible.Second,we should change the traditional pattern of extensive and highly polluting economic development and the structure of inv

关 键 词：绿色增加值 非竞争型投入产出表 结构分解 环境治理 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]