黑龙江省旅游业收入预测及其关联因素研究  

Tourism Income Prediction of Heilongjiang Province and the Correlation Factors

作　　者：祖培福 刘嘉扬 ZU Peifu;LIU Jiayang

机构地区：[1]牡丹江师范学院数学科学学院

出　　处：《商业经济》2019年第10期5-7,共3页Business & Economy

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅青年学术骨干资助项目：基于PCA-GRA的黑龙江省经济社会发展的综合评价研究(1352MSYQN004)

摘　　要：运用对背景值优化的改进灰色预测模型,以黑龙江省近八年的旅游收入数据为依据,对其未来几年的旅游收入做出预测,从预测值可以看到黑龙江省旅游收入将在2019年突破2000亿元,并在2020年突破2200亿元。同时,对影响黑龙江省旅游收入的主要因素做了比较研究,以确定各因素与旅游业收入的相关程度。结果显示:所选的八个因素与旅游收入都密切相关,按照影响程度由大到小,分别是住宿餐饮业、城镇常住居民人均可支配收入、年末金融机构住户存款额、铁路旅客周转量、公路旅客周转量、信息传输、民航旅客周转量、绿色食品产值。Using the improved grey prediction model of background value optimization,based on the data of tourism income of Heilongjiang province in the past eight years,the paper forecasts the tourism income of the province in the next few years.From the prediction value,it can be seen that the tourism income of the province will break through 200 billion yuan in 2019 and 220 billion yuan in 2020.At the same time,the paper makes a comparative study of the main factors affecting the tourism income of the province,in order to determine the correlation between each factor and the tourism income.The results show that the eight factors are closely related to tourism income.According to the degree of influence,they are accommodation and catering industry,per capita disposable income of urban residents,household deposits of financial institutions at the end of the year,railway passenger turnover,highway passenger turnover,information transmission,civil aviation passenger turnover and green food output value.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 预测 旅游收入 关联度 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]