基于粗糙集和可拓论的泉州市水资源风险评估  

Quanzhou Urban Water Resource Risk Assessment based on Roughness Set and Extension Theory

作　　者：黄迪森 HUANG Di-sen(Quanzhou Urban Jinji Regulating Dam Management Department,Quanzhou 362333,China)

机构地区：[1]泉州市金鸡拦河闸管理处

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2019年第10期193-196,234,共5页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：采用自然灾害风险理论从水资源的脆弱性、危险性、暴露性及预防短缺能力4个方面构建水资源风险评价体系,对普适性指标利用粗糙集理论简化,从而得到能够反映区域水资源实际状况的针对性指标。然后利用主、客观相耦合的赋权法确定各指标权重,并以泉州市为例对其水资源风险选择基于可拓论的综合法进行评价。结果显示:水资源开发利用程度过高、万元GDP用水量过多以及降水量偏小为引起泉州市水资源风险较高的主要因素;基于可拓论与粗糙集的评价方法具有计算简单、思路清晰、结果客观等优点,可为水资源风险评价方法的改进与丰富提供一定的理论依据。The natural disaster risk theory is adopted to construct the water resource risk evaluation system from the four aspects of water resource vulnerability,risk,exposure and the ability to prevent shortage,and the rough set theory is used to simplify the universal index,so as to obtain the targeted index that can reflect the actual situation of regional water resources.Then the weight of each index is determined by the method of subjective and objective coupling,and the water resource risk selection based on extension theory is evaluated by taking Quanzhou as an example.The results showed that high degree of water resources development and unitization,excessive water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP and low precipitation were the main factors;the evaluation method based on extension theory and roughness set have advantages of simple calculation,clear thinking way and subjective results,and it can provide a certain theoretical basis for improving and enriching the water resource risk assessment method.

关 键 词：水资源风险 可拓论 粗糙集 评估模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]