降雨-库水位作用下的下坪滑坡Monte-Carlo可靠度研究  

Study on Monte-Carlo reliability degree of Xiaping landslide under joint-effect of rainfall-reservoir water level

作　　者：喻甜香[1] 邓丽妹 张珂峰 YU Tianxiang;DENG Limei;ZHANG Kefeng(Guangzhou City Construction College,Guangzhou 510925,Guangdong,China;Guangzhou City Construction Vestibule School,Guangzhou 510925,Guangdong,China;Institute of Architectural Engineering,Nantong Open University,Nantong 226000,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]广州城建职业学院,广东广州510925 [2]广州城建技工学校,广东广州510925 [3]南通开放大学建筑工程学院,江苏南通226000

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2019年第11期118-123,共6页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：广东省品牌专业建设资助项目(2016gzpp016)

摘　　要：针对降雨-库水位联合作用下的可靠度研究较少这一不足,基于下坪滑坡的工程背景,利用Geo-studio软件对降雨联合库水位不同工况下的渗透稳定性及可靠度进行了分析,得到了不同位置监测点的孔压变化、确定性安全系数变化、可靠度及失效概率,结果表明:库水位骤降工况下孔压总体上随时间呈现不断下降最终趋于稳定,而不同降雨工况下孔压总体上随时间呈现不断上升最终趋于稳定;库水位骤降情况下定性安全系数随时间呈现先降后升,而随降雨呈现单调下降的趋势;库水位骤降速率越大,降雨强度越大,降雨持时越长,最小安全系数则越小;库水位骤降工况下的不同工况安全系数分布差异要明显小于降雨工况,库水位骤降速率越大,失效概率越大,可靠性指标越低,降雨强度越大,降雨持续时间越长,失效概率越大,可靠性指标越低。Aiming at the insufficience of the studies made on the degree of reliability under the joint-effect of rainfall-reservoir water level,the seepage stability and reliability degree of the body of Xiaping Landslide under the different conditions of the rainfall-reservoir joint-effect are analyzed herein under the engineering back ground of Xiaping Landslide,and then the pore pressure variation,the deterministic safety factor variation,the reliability degree and failure probability of the monitoring points at different locations are obtained.The study result shows that the pore pressure generally exhibits a continuous time-dependent decrease and finally tends to be stable under the condition of sudden drop of reservoir water level,while the pore pressures under different rainfall conditions generally exhibit continuous time-dependent increase and finally tend to be stable.The qualitative safety factor in the case of sudden drop of reservoir water level is time-dependently decreased at first and then is increased,but exhibits a monotonously decreasing trend along with rainfall.The larger the rate of the sudden drop of reservoir water level is,the greater the rainfall intensity is to be,the longer the rainfall duration is to be and the smaller the minimum safety factor is to be as well.The safety factor distributions of different operation conditions under the condition of sudden drop of reservoir water level are obviously less than those under the rainfall condition.The larger the rate of the sudden drop of reservoir water level is,the grater the failure probability is to be and the lower the reliability index is to be,while the greater the rainfall intensity is,the longer the rainfall duration is to be,the greater the failure probability is to be and the lower the reliability index is to be as well.

关 键 词：降雨 库水位变动 滑坡 MONTE-CARLO法 可靠度 数值模拟 

分 类 号：TU42[建筑科学—岩土工程]