基于可靠度理论研究导流洞涌水概率及敏感性  

Study on Probability and Sensitivity of Water Inflow in the Diversion Tunnel Based on the Reliability Theory

作　　者：杨智翔 马彤彤 冯伟[1] 康家亮[1] 李保方[1] YANG Zhixiang;MA Tongtong;FENG Wei;KANG Jialiang;LI Baofang(Zhongshui Northeast Survey and Design Research Co.,Ltd.,Changchun 130021,China;Changchun Machinery Research Institute,Ministry of Water Resources,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司,吉林长春130021 [2]水利部长春机械研究所,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《人民黄河》2019年第11期93-96,101,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：内蒙古“十三五”规划水利重点工程项目(34113632)

摘　　要：水电站建设过程中前期导流经常采用导流洞来实现,但是导流洞在开挖过程中经常发生涌水问题,因此对导流洞涌水概率的判定及评价成为首要解决的难题。针对导流洞涌水特征,用可靠度理论,建立其可靠度判定极限状态方程,并根据现场试验及概率统计方法对方程中岩体渗透系数K、导流洞长度L、潜水面到导流洞底板的水头H、排水沟的水深h、导流洞影响半径R等基本变量均值、变异系数与可靠度指标的变化规律进行研究。建立了导流洞涌水可靠度指标计算模型,同时对各基本变量的可靠度敏感性进行分析,通过分析得出:涌水可靠度指标对导流洞岩体渗透系数K的敏感性最高,其次是潜水面到含水层底板的水头、导流洞长度和影响半径,而对排水沟水深的敏感性最低。At present,the diversion tunnel is often used in the early stage of hydropower station construction,but the problem of water inrush often occurs in the process of excavation,so the determination and evaluation of the probability of water inrush has become the primary prob lem solved by geologists in recent years.For diversion tunnel water gushing limit characteristics,with the theory of reliability,determine its reliability limit state equation,and based on field test and probability statistics method,the equation of rock permeability coefficient K,di version tunnel length L,the phreatic surface to the diversion tunnel bottom head height H,drain the water depth h,diversion tunnel radius R basic variables such as average,variation coefficient and the changing rule of the reliability index were studied.Diversion tunnel water gush ing reliability index calculation model was established and at the same time it analyzed the reliability sensitivity of the basic variables.It ob tains through the analysis that the reliability index of water inrush is the highest sensitivity to the permeability coefficient K of diversion tunnel rock mass,then is the phreatic surface to the aquifer water head height of the base plate,diversion tunnel length and radius of influence and the sensitivity to the drainage ditch water depth is the minimum.

关 键 词：导流洞 涌水概率 可靠度指标 敏感性 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]