住房信贷与家庭消费:基于山东省某银行调查数据  

Housing Loans and Family Consumption: Based on Data from the Bank in Shandong province

作　　者：羿建华 郭峰[2] YI Jianhua;GUO Feng

机构地区：[1]济南大学商学院,山东济南250002 [2]中国人民银行济南分行,山东济南250010

出　　处：《济南大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第6期91-97,159,共8页Journal of University of Jinan:Social Science Edition

基　　金：山东省社科规划项目“普惠金融体系的社会绩效及其实现机制”(项目编号:16BJRJ01)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：家庭消费对于稳定总需求、促进经济发展具有关键作用,随着我国经济结构的不断调整,发展的重心逐渐向促进内需方向转移,扩大和激活居民消费成为我国经济发展方式转变的客观要求。随着房地产市场的不断发展,家庭住房贷款规模总体上升,住房贷款是否对家庭消费产生了显著影响、影响的效果如何,都是必须研究的问题。本文利用2016年6月至2018年12月期间的微观调查数据进行了实证检验,结果显示:家庭住房贷款的增加对扩大家庭消费具有积极影响,且主要集中在耐用品消费方面,住房信贷的发展不会导致消费增长乏力。在保持房地产市场调控力度不减的前提下,应继续引导住房信贷市场合理有序发展,促进家庭消费平稳增长。Family consumption is important to steady demand and promote the development of economic.With the adjustment of economic structure in our country,the focus of economic development is promoting domestic demand.Expanding and stimulating household consumption is objective demand to promote the change of economic development way.With the development of real estate,housing loans are rising.We need research housing loans’influence on family consumption.This paper uses data from June in 2016 to December in 2018 to do empirical test.The result shows that rising family loans have positive influence on expanding family consumption,especially durable goods consumption.The development of housing loans will not lead to low development of family consumption.Being based on the premise of regulating and controlling the development of real estate market,the government should lead healthy development of housing credit market and promote stable growth of family consumption.

关 键 词：住房信贷 消费 流动性约束 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]