我国暴雨机理与预报研究进展及其相关问题思考  

Progress in mechanism study and forecast for heavy rain in China in recent 70 years

作　　者：赵思雄[1] 孙建华[1] ZHAO Sixiong;SUN Jianhua(Laboratory of Cloud Precipitation Physics and Severe Storm,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴实验室

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2019年第5期422-430,共9页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507200)

摘　　要：为了不断提高对我国暴雨发生发展机理的认识和暴雨预报的准确率,本文对新中国成立70年来我国暴雨机理与预测研究历程与重要成果进行了回顾,首先简要介绍了热带季风及其变异、西太平洋副热带高压及阻塞高压对我国暴雨的影响;然后,概述了我国梅雨期暴雨、华北暴雨与华南前汛期暴雨、登陆台风暴雨与西部地区强降水、青藏高原及不同地形对暴雨影响研究方面的主要进展;最后,探讨了我国发展更精细暴雨定量降水数值预报的前景和存在问题。在此基础上,提出未来我国暴雨研究与预报中值得关注和思考的几个科学问题。In order to improve the understanding of formation and development mechanisms and the forecast accuracy of heavy rain in China,in this paper,we introduce important achievements related to mechanisms and prediction of heavy rain since the foundation of New China 70 years ago.Firstly,the tropical monsoon and its variation,the influence of the Western Pacific subtropical high and blocking high on the heavy rain are introduced.Then,the main progress of heavy rain in Meiyu period,heavy rainfall in North China and pre-rainy season in South China,heavy rain produced by landfall typhoon and severe heavy rain in western China,the influences of Tibetan Plateau and other different terrains on heavy rain are summarized,respectively.Finally,the prospects and problems of developing more accurate quantitative prediction methods or systems for heavy rain are discussed.Based on the above achievements,some scientific questions in the research and operational forecasting of heavy rain in the future are proposed.

关 键 词：暴雨机理 暴雨预报 数值预报 天气系统 地形影响 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]