破解2008年以来中国国民储蓄率下降之谜  

Crack the Mystery of the Decline of China’s National Savings Rate since 2008

作　　者：杨天宇[1] Yang Tian-yu

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2019年第11期14-22,共9页Economist

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国经济的结构性减速与结构性改革”(13JJD790036)

摘　　要：2008年以来中国国民储蓄率持续下降,而现有文献对此现象还缺乏足够的解释。本文利用2008—2016年资金流量表数据,分解了居民、企业和政府部门对国民储蓄率下降的贡献。研究发现,企业和政府部门对国民储蓄率下降的贡献较大,居民部门对国民储蓄率下降的贡献较小。进一步分析发现,国民储蓄率的下降可归因于居民储蓄动机的变化、企业支付劳动报酬和红利支出的增加、政府社会福利支出的增加和政府消费的刚性上升。由于剩余劳动力减少、社会发展和人口年龄结构变化的压力将长期存在,上述导致国民储蓄率下降的因素都将是长期趋势。为了对冲储蓄率下降带来的经济增长压力,我国经济增长方式需要由投资驱动型转变为消费驱动型。这就需要对有关政策进行必要的调整,政策的着力点应放在扩大消费和改善投资效率上。Since 2008,China's national savings rate has continued to decline,and the existing literatures lack sufficient explanation for this phenomenon.This paper uses the 2008-2016 fund flow table data to decompose the contribution of resi dents,enterprises and government departments to the decline in the national savings rate.The study finds that enterprises and government departments contribut a lot to the decline in the national savings rate,and the resident sector contribut less to the de cline in the national savings rate.Further analysis finds that changes in household saving motives,increase in corporate labor compensation and dividends,increase in government social welfare expenditures,and rigid increase in government consumption are the deep-seated reasons for the decline in national savings rates.As the pressure of rising labor costs,social development and population aging will persist for a long time,the above factors leading to a decline in the national savings rate will be a longterm trend.In order to hedge the economic growth pressure brought about by the decline in the savings rate,China's economic growth mode needs to be transformed from an investment-driven one to a consumption-driven one.This requires the necessary adjustments to the relevant policies,and the focus of the policy should be on expanding consumption and improving investment efficiency.

关 键 词：储蓄率 资金流量表 可支配收入 储蓄倾向 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]