中国出口贸易韧性空间差异性研究  

Spatial difference and mechanisms of China’s export trade regional resilience

作　　者：贺灿飞[1,2] 夏昕鸣 黎明[1] HE Canfei;XIA Xinming;LI Ming(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Peking Univeristy-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2019年第10期1558-1570,共13页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731278);国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目(41425001)~~

摘　　要：金融危机时期,中国区域出口韧性表现出危机第一阶段(2008—2009年)的抵抗力、危机第二阶段(2009—2011年)的恢复力、产品结构转换提升力。论文构建了区域-产品层面的区域出口贸易韧性指标,通过区域出口贸易额、产品结构等不同层面刻画了金融危机后各区域抵抗力、恢复力的空间差异。实证研究表明:相关多样化产业结构不仅在短期可以增强区域产品的抵抗力,在长期还可以提高区域产品的恢复力并且助推区域产品实现结构升级;应急型税收政策短期内一定程度上可以有效缓解危机冲击,但其影响范围及作用时间均是有限的;外企出口占比高的区域产品对区域产品结构升级影响不明显,但加工贸易方式推动了区域产品在危机中的结构升级。After the global financial crisis,the resilience of China's regional exports is reflected in three stages:resistance in the first stage of the crisis(2008-2009),resilience in the second stage of the crisis(2009-2011),and promotion in product structure transformation after the crisis.This study constructed a regional export trade resilience index at the regional-product level,and described the spatial differences of regional resilience and resilience after the financial crisis with regard to regional export trade volume and product structure.The results of the regional-product level econometric model show that the diversification of related industrial structure not only can enhance the resistance of regional products in the short run,but also can improve the resilience of regional products in the long run,and further promote the upgrading of regional product structure.Emergency tax policy can effectively alleviate the impact of crisis in the short term,but its impact is limited and does not last;regional products with high export proportion of foreign enterprises have little effect on the upgrading of regional product structure,but processing trade promotes the upgrading of regional product structure in the crisis.

关 键 词：区域韧性 金融危机 出口贸易 空间差异 结构升级 中国 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]