大豆气候品质评价技术模型  

Soybean Climatic Quality Assessment:Technical Models

作　　者：姚俊英[1] 于宏敏[1] 阙粼婧 李玉春 Yao Junying;Yu Hongmin;Que Linjing;Li Yuchun(Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center,Harbin 150036;Huma Meteorological Bureau,Heihe Heilongjiang 165100)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象服务中心,哈尔滨150036 [2]呼玛县气象局,黑龙江黑河165100

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2019年第31期134-138,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：黑龙江省气象局科学技术研究项目“黑龙江省主要农产品气候品质认证评价方法研究”(HQZD2016004)、“黑龙江省农产品气候品质认证服务系统”(HQZC2017022)、“黑龙江省大豆气候品质认证技术方法研究”(HQZC2018022);中国气象局软科学研究项目“黑龙江省农业气象服务需求研究”;黑龙江省气象局软科学研究项目“黑龙江省农产品气候品质认证服务研究”

摘　　要：开展大豆气候品质评价技术方法研究既是开展农产品气候品质认证服务工作的必然要求,也是黑龙江省种植结构调整的现实需求。本研究采用呼玛县1981—2018年大豆生育期、产量、气象灾情以及气温、降水、日照等气象资料,研究确定大豆气候品质评价技术指标,并建立评价模型,确定了大豆气候品质评价6个关键影响因子(年≥10℃积温、开花期低温、开花期日照、开花期降水、结荚鼓粒期降水、初霜冻)和分级指标。通过对专家打分法、相关系数法和通径系数法的对比分析,最终采用相关系数法确定权重系数建立大豆气候品质评价模型,历史拟合正确率达88%,说明该方法具有较高的实用性。The research on the technical methods of soybean climatic quality assessment is not only an inevitable requirement for the development of climatic quality certification service of agricultural product,but also a practical demand for planting structure adjustment in Heilongjiang.Based on the soybean growth period,yield,meteorological disasters and meteorological data,such as temperature,precipitation and sunshine in Huma from 1981 to 2018,we studied the technical indicators for soybean climatic quality evaluation,and established an evaluation model,determined 6 key influencing factors for soybean climatic quality assessment(annual≥10℃accumulated temperature,low temperature,sunshine,precipitation during flowering period,precipitation at pod blast stage,initial frost)and grading indicators.By comparing and analyzing the expert scoring method,correlation coefficient method and path coefficient method,we determined the weight coefficient and finally established the soybean climatic quality evaluation model by using the correlation coefficient method,the accuracy rate of historical fitting is 88%,showing the method has high practicability.

关 键 词：大豆 气候品质 评价 影响因子 评价指标 权重系数 技术模型 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]