考虑风荷预测误差不确定性的动态经济调度  

Dynamic Economic Dispatch Considering Uncertainties of Wind Power and Load Forecast Error

作　　者：易明月 童晓阳[1] YI Mingyue;TONG Xiaoyang(School of Electrical Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学电气工程学院

出　　处：《电网技术》2019年第11期4050-4056,共7页Power System Technology

摘　　要：大规模风电的接入显著增加了电力系统运行调度的不确定性,在动态经济调度问题中需要考虑风电和负荷预测误差不确定性带来的影响。首先,采用高斯混合模型对风电功率预测误差的概率密度分布进行拟合,提出了依据风电功率预测值分段拟合预测误差的方法。其次,建立了考虑风电和负荷预测误差的动态经济调度模型,构造了基于风电和负荷预测误差概率分布模型的旋转备用容量概率约束,将含有概率约束的随机模型转化为等价的确定性模型。在蝙蝠算法的基础上,提出了一种融合量子行为和混沌映射操作的混合蝙蝠算法求解所建立的动态经济调度模型。最后,以包含1个风电场的10机组系统为例进行仿真分析,验证了所提模型和算法的有效性。Large-scale integration of wind power significantly increases uncertainty of power system operation and dispatching.The impact of the uncertainties of wind power and load forecast errors should be considered in dynamic economic dispatch(DED).Firstly,a Gaussian mixture model was proposed to fit the probability density distribution of the wind power forecast error,and a segment method based on wind power forecasted value was proposed to fit the forecast error.Then,a dynamic economic dispatch model was established considering the wind power and load forecast errors.Spinning reserve chance constraints based on the probability distribution model o f the wind power and load forecast errors were included in the model.The stochastic optimization model with chance constraints was thus transformed into an equivalent deterministic model.A hybrid bat algorithm combining quantum behavior and chaotic mapping was proposed to solve the proposed dynamic economic dispatch model.Finally,simulation results of a power system with ten conventional generators and one wind farm verify effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.

关 键 词：动态经济调度 风电 预测误差:高斯混合模型 分段拟合 改进蝙蝠算法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]