上海市信息产业结构与经济增长的互动分析  

Interactive Analysis of Shanghai’s Information Industry Structure and Economic Growth

作　　者：刘怡南 刘芹[1] LIU Yi-nan;LIU Qin(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院

出　　处：《技术与创新管理》2019年第6期766-772,共7页Technology and Innovation Management

基　　金：上海市政府发展研究中心-上海理工大学“基于联网+的上海创新发展决策咨询”研究基地项目;教育部人文社科项目(15YJC790060)

摘　　要：工业4.0时代,信息产业作为经济创新发展的支柱产业,对当下经济增长的贡献日益显著。探究信息产业对经济增长的影响具有重要现实意义。上海作为我国经济发展的重要城市,信息产业发展迅速。因此针对上海市信息产业结构,将信息产业主要分为信息制造业、信息销售业、信息服务业3大类,根据信息产业结构与经济增长发展现状,运用灰色关联度的分析方法,分析了上海市信息产业结构与经济增长之间的关系,结果表明信息产业和经济增长之间的关联度非常高,其中信息服务业与经济增长之间的关联度最大,其次运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对1997-2016年上海市信息服务业产业总值和上海市生产总值进行实证研究。结果表明信息服务业对上海市经济增长具有一定的推动作用,但其互动机制作用不明显。最后从优化信息产业内部结构、注重发展现代信息服务业、促进信息服务业和信息制造业融合发展、以创新驱动信息制造业升级带动信息销售业发展等方面提出了相关建议。In the era of Industry 4.0,the information industry,as a pillar industry of economic innovation and development,has increasingly contributed to the current economic growth.Exploring the impact of the information industry on economic growth has important practical significance.As an important city for China’s economic development,the information industry in Shanghai has developed rapidly.Therefore,according to the structure of Shanghai’s information industry,the information industry is mainly divided into three categories:information manufacturing,information sales,and information service.According to the information industry structure and economic growth and development status,the analysis method of gray correlation degree is used to analyze Shanghai.The relationship between the information industry structure and economic growth shows that the correlation between information industry and economic growth is very high,and the correlation between information service industry and economic growth is the largest,followed by cointegration test and Granger.Causal test,an empirical study on the total value of Shanghai’s information service industry and Shanghai’s GDP in 1997-2016 was carried out.The results show that the information service industry plays a certain role in promoting Shanghai’s economic growth,but its interaction mechanism is not obvious.Finally,it put forward relevant suggestions from the aspects of optimizing the internal structure of the information industry,focusing on the development of modern information service industry,promoting the integration and development of information service industry and information manufacturing industry,and promoting the development of information sales industry with innovation-driven information manufacturing upgrade.

关 键 词：信息产业 信息服务业 灰色关联分析 协整分析 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]