百名经济学家预期2019年我国经济继续在合理区间运行——2018年四季度中国百名经济学家信心调查报告  

The Economists Expect the Chinese Economy Will Continue to Run Within a Reasonable Range in 2019——Report of the Survey on the Confidence ofAbout 100 Chinese Economists in Q4 2018

作　　者：赵军利[1] 贾德刚[1] 黄辫辫 ZHAO Junli;JIA Degang;HUANG Bianbian(China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC)National Bureau of Statistics(NBS))

机构地区：[1]国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心

出　　处：《中国经济景气月报》2019年第10期I0001-I0009,共9页China Monthly Economic Indicators

摘　　要：国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心于2019年9月开展的中国百名经济学家信心调查显示,三季度经济学家信心指数继续小幅回落,经济学家对当前经济形势的满意程度下降,但对未来经济走势预期企稳。全球经济放缓及中美经贸摩擦升级的不利影响持续显现,经济学家认为当前我国经济下行压力仍然较大,预期全年经济增长稳中趋缓,就业基本稳定,价格稳中略升;预期消费需求稳中趋缓,但服务性消费支出加快;预期投资增速略有加快;预期出口增速回落,贸易顺差有所减少。China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC)of the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS)con ducted a survey on the con fide nee of about 100 Chinese economists in September 2019,according to which,the confidence index of econo mists conti nued to drop slightly in Q3 and the level of their satisfaction with the current economic situation declined;however,their expectations for the future trend stabilized.The adverse impacts of the global economic slowdown and the esca?lation of China-U.S.trade friction continued to emerge.

关 键 词：经济下行压力 信心指数 经济走势 稳中趋缓 国家统计局 经济放缓 贸易顺差 服务性消费支出 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]