中国城市分布式光伏发电经济性与区域利用研究  

Economy and Regional Utilization of Urban Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in China

作　　者：柳君波 张静静[1] 徐向阳[1] 高俊莲[1] LIU Junbo;ZHANG JingJing;XU Xiangyang;GAO Junlian(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院

出　　处：《经济地理》2019年第10期54-61,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：大气污染成因与治理攻关(总理基金)课题：区域大气承载力与空气质量改善路径(DQGG0302);煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室开放课题资助项目：矿区土地复垦与生态服务关键问题研究(SKLCRSM17KFB02)

摘　　要：以中国331个城市为研究对象,利用PVsyst软件评估各城市的光伏发电能力,运用生命周期理论、成本效益分析、情景分析等方法,将光伏生命周期分为投资回收阶段与净获利阶段,构建分布式光伏经济性分析模型,并设定基于政策与技术引导的比较情景,评估分析在无补贴时,各情景下各城市的光伏经济性,并分析比较光伏的区域性利用差异。结果表明:①在基准情景下,105个城市的光伏投资回收期在13年以内,其获利指数在1.3~2.1;在政策支持情景下,201个城市的光伏投资回收期在13年以内,其获利指数在1.3~2.3;在技术发展情景下,259个城市的光伏投资回收期在13年以内,其获利指数在1.3~2.5。②利好的金融政策、电价政策与技术发展能够有效提高光伏经济性。电价增长率每提高1%,光伏发电收益增加5.25%;光伏贷款利率每降低1%,融资成本减少6.67%,光伏发电成本减少3.22%;光伏系统建设成本每降低1%,光伏发电成本减少1%。③由于资源禀赋及经济条件的不同,光伏经济性存在明显的地域性差异,按照光伏经济性差异将全国地区分为4个等级,进而有的放矢地发展分布式光伏。Identifying obstacles of photovoltaic is the key to promote it. Therefore, this paper takes 331 cities in China as the research object, evaluates the photovoltaic power generation capacity of each city by using PVsyst software. Based on the life-cycle theory, cost-benefit analysis and scenario analysis, this study divides the photovoltaic life cycle into investment recovery stage and net profit stage, and constructs the economic analysis model of distributed photovoltaic. It sets up comparative scenarios based on policy and technology guidance to evaluate and analyze the photovoltaic economy of each city under each scenario without photovoltaic subsidies, and analyzes the regional utilization differences of photovoltaic. The results show that: 1) Under the benchmark scenario, the payback period of photovoltaic investment in only 105 cities is less than 13 years, and the profit index is 1.3~2.1;under the policy support scenario, it has only 201 cities whose payback period is less than 13 years and profit index is 1.3~2.3;under the technology development scenario,it has 259 cities whose payback period is less than 13 years and profit index is 1.3~2.5. 2) Supportive financial policy,electricity price policy and technological development can effectively improve the photovoltaic economy. Every 1%increase in electricity price growth rate will help the income of photovoltaic power generation increase by 5.25%;every1% decrease in interest rate of photovoltaic loan will help the financing cost decrease by 6.67%, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation decrease by 3.22%;every 1% decrease in construction cost of photovoltaic system will help the cost of photovoltaic power generation decrease by 1%. 3) Due to the difference of resource endowment and economic conditions, there are obvious regional differences in photovoltaic economy. According to economic differences,the whole country should be divided into four levels to develop distributed photovoltaic in a targeted way.

关 键 词：城市 分布式光伏发电 情景分析 经济性 光能资源 成本/效益分析 政府补贴 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]