马尔萨斯的忧虑与当代国人的困惑——关于人口价值观的历史回望与现实重塑  

Malthus’ Worries and Compatriots’ Bewilderment in China Today: A History Review and Contemporary Reconstruction on the Population Values

作　　者：罗淳[1] 王丛雷[2] LUO Chun;WANG Conglei(Institute of Population Research,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China;School of Development Studies,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学人口研究所,云南昆明650091 [2]云南大学发展研究院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《人口与经济》2019年第6期57-69,共13页Population & Economics

摘　　要：马尔萨斯的忧虑在于人口增长有超过食物增长的趋势而引发生存危机,当代国人的困惑在于人口政策放宽后生育率依然低迷、与政策预期差距明显。无论"马氏之忧"还是"国人之惑"都是基于数量大小或规模增减而形成的人口价值观,虽有其历史的合理性,却显存认识的局限性。面对当下中国人口演进新格局,我们需要跳出基于人口数量增减逻辑的价值评判框架,以可持续发展观为依准,从三个层面重塑与时俱进的人口价值观:一是保持人口规模在代际转换间的相对平稳;二是追求人口结构在时空流变中的互动协调;三是尊重人在发展中的主体地位与能动作用。The Multhus’ worry was about population invariably increase over the subsistence increase unless the limited and arising human life crisis. Relatively, compatriots’ puzzled in China today is about low fertility downturn under the new policy of universal two-child implementation. Whether Malthus or compatriots formed their views of population values are basic on population size and its change. Although both of them have their rationality at that time, they show somewhat insight limitation. Facing to the new situation of current population in China, we have to get rid of the traditional value evaluation framework based on the logic of population increasing and decreasing;meanwhile reconstracting a new outline of population values based on sustainable development as follows: Firstly, keeping population size steady from one generation to another;Secondly, seeking population structures coordination and balance with the process of space-time change;Thirdly, pay attention to the right and activity of human being on the course of development.

关 键 词：马尔萨斯 人口价值观 人口增长 低生育 人口可持续发展 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]