国际邮轮传染病疫情风险评估体系的建立  

Establishment of the risk assessment system of international cruise related infectious diseases

作　　者：夏静 蔡蕾[1] 陈磊[1] 周儒[2] 潘佳鸿[1] 王惟信 朱裴钦 孟成艳[1] 秦佳[1] XIA Jing;CAI Lei;CHEN Lei;ZHOU Ru;PAN Jia-hong;WANG Wei-xin;ZHU Pei-qin;MENG Cheng-yan;QIN Jia(Shanghai International Travel Healthcare Center,Shanghai 200335,China)

机构地区：[1]上海国际旅行卫生保健中心,上海200335 [2]上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院卢湾分院

出　　处：《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2019年第5期319-322,344,共5页Chinese Journal of Frontier Health and Quarantine

摘　　要：目的建立科学、有效的国际邮轮传染病风险评估体系。方法应用文献法、德尔菲法制定风险评估指标体系,采用综合风险指数模型评估法和风险矩阵法设定风险判断标准。结果制定的邮轮风险评估指标体系包含目标层、准入层和指标层3个等级,由病原体及传染源、传播途径、易感人群、自然因素、社会因素、预防控制措施及效果组成,包含20个具体指标对应风险判断矩阵。结论制定的风险评估体系能有效防范和控制邮轮传染病经国境口岸传播,有助于海关及疾控部门进行快速的初步风险评估。Objective To establish a scientific and effective international cruise related infectious disease risk assess-ment system. Methods The literature evaluation method and Delphi method were used to develop the risk assessment index system. Then the comprehensive risk index model assessment method and risk matrix method were used to evaluate the risk judgment criteria. Results The cruise risk assessment index system include three levels :target level,access level and indicator level,involved pathogens and sources,routes of transmission,susceptible populations,natural factors,social factors,preventive and control measures,which composed of 20 specific indicators,corresponding to the risk judgment matrix. Conclusion The risk assessment system developed in this study could effectively prevent and control the spread of cruise infectious diseases through border ports,and help the customs and disease control departments to conduct rapid initial risk assessment.

关 键 词：邮轮 传染病 风险评估 

分 类 号：R184[医药卫生—流行病学]