大雾临近预报中高密度能见度数据应用  

Application Study of High Density Visibility Data to Heavy Fog Nowcasting

作　　者：周建平 张蕾 王传辉 姚叶青 刘承晓 Zhou Jianping;Zhang Lei;Wang Chuanhui;Yao Yeqing;Liu Chengxiao(Anhui Public Weather Service Center,Hefei 230031)

机构地区：[1]安徽省公共气象服务中心

出　　处：《气象科技》2019年第5期866-871,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：安徽省重点研究和开发计划项目（1804a0802215）;安徽省气象局科研项目（KM201706）;安徽省气象局预报员专项（kY201704）共同资助

摘　　要：采用2011-2016年合肥地区高时空分辨率的能见度观测数据,分析能见度空间分布特征及大雾生消过程中的能见度变化特点。结果表明:能见度多呈现正态分布且分布相对均匀,有雾时正态分布比例明显下降,非均匀性明显增加;大雾过程中平均能见度变化趋势较为稳定有利于临近预报,而空间最低能见度对临近预报有指示意义;大雾过程中空间变差系数多有明显增加,大雾开始形成和消散阶段空间差异性较大;历史回算表明,利用高密度能见度数据的空间分布和趋势外推,较实际预警发布时间平均提前约1.9h。Based on the high temporal-spatial resolution visibility data from 2011 to 2016,the spatial distribution characteristics of visibility and its variation in the fog formation process are analyzed.Results show:the ratio of the normal distribution or lognormal distribution in visibility spatial distribution was more than 95%.The ratio decreased significantly while there were fogs;the coefficient of variation formed apeak structure in fog formation process;the high-density visibility data was used to make nowcasting or early warning of heavy fogs and the time was 1.9 hours ahead of the warning time averagely.

关 键 词：高密度 能见度 雾 临近预报 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]