长江上游秋汛期降水特征及其影响因子研究  

Characteristics of Autumn Precipitation in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River and Its Impact Factors

作　　者：张程玥 舒卫民[2] 曹光荣 李鹏[2] 龚昭荟 严佩文 朱坚[1] ZHANG Cheng-yue;SHU Wei-min;CAO Guang-rong;LI Peng;GONG Zhao-hui;YAN Pei-wen;ZHU Jian(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443000,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210046,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北宜昌443000 [3]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2019年第11期11-14,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0601504,2016YFA0600701);国家自然科学基金项目(41575071,41605043);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新项目;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2018B746X14,2017B10114);长江上游流域中长期径流预报系统开发(2416010005)联合资助

摘　　要：鉴于长江上游秋汛对三峡等水库的蓄水调度有重要影响,以长江上游秋汛期降水为例,基于长江上游流域内1961~2016年降水资料,分析流域秋汛期降水特征及其可能影响因子。经M-K检验发现,流域降水的变化约在1983年前后存在趋势突变,因此取1983~2016年降水资料进行时空异常分析。基于EOF方法,长江上游流域降水第一模态空间分布呈南北反相型,其方差贡献达到31%,通过North检验,与之对应的时间序列呈现出明显的年际和年代际演变特征。进一步利用NCEP/NCAR的大气环流资料和NOAA_ERSST海温资料与EOF第一模态时间序列进行回归分析。结果表明,当西风急流偏南、副热带南印度洋偶极子(SIOD)为正位相或赤道中东太平洋海温负距平时,长江上游秋汛期降水南多北少。Autumn precipitation over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River(URYR)has great impact on the storage operation of Three Gorge Reservoir.Based on the precipitation data over URYR of the autumn flood season during 1961-2016,the change characteristic of regional mean precipitation is evaluated.By Mann-Kendall test,there may be a sudden change point at 1983.Using precipitation data from 1983 to 2016,EOF analyzing reveals that the precipitation distribution is south-north seesaw pattern of the first EOF mode,with 31% contribution.By using reanalysis circulation data from NCEP/NCAR and sea surface temperature(SST)data from NOAA_ERSST,linear regression analyzing indicates that when the westerly jet shifts southward,subtropical indian ocean dipole(SIOD)is in positive phase or the SST anomaly of the eastern-central equatorial pacific is negative,the autumn precipitation over URYR would be south-flood-northdrought.

关 键 词：长江上游 秋汛期降水 急流 海温 影响因子 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]