基于投入产出法的能源回弹效应测算与风险评价  

Energy Rebound Effect Measurement and Risk Assessment Based on Input-output Method

作　　者：杨慧慧 王喜刚[2] Yang Huihui;Wang Xigang(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Business School,Henan Normal University,Xinxiang Henan 453007,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]河南师范大学商学院,河南新乡453007

出　　处：《统计与决策》2019年第20期20-24,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目（16BJY074)

摘　　要：能源回弹效应在能源政策制定时是一个不可忽视的现象,对其进行准确测算和客观评价是非常必要的。文章基于投入产出视角和收入再分配理论提出一种新的测算回弹效应方法,并在此基础上构建回弹风险评价指标,以2015年全国和各省份的投入产出表(延长表)进行了实证分析。结果显示:整体回弹效应与直接回弹效应具有很大的关系,当直接回弹效应较大时,整体回弹效应将较小;而直接回弹效应较小时,则间接回弹效应可能会较大,并引起整体"过火效应"的出现。而且,各地的回弹风险与其经济结构有很大关联,当经济结构中高后向关联行业占比较高,或者潜在回弹强度较大时,结构回弹脆弱性就越大,越容易受到回弹效应的影响。Energy rebound effect is a non-negligible phenomenon in the formulation of energy policies, so it is necessary to accurately measure and objectively evaluate it. This paper is based on input-output perspective and income redistribution theory to propose a new method to measure the rebound effect, on the basis of which to build the rebound risk assessment index. And then the paper makes an empirical analysis on the input-output table(extended table) of the whole country and each province in 2015.The results show that the overall rebound effect has a significant relationship with the direct rebound effect, and when the direct rebound effect is large, the overall rebound effect will be small;however, if the direct rebound effect is small, the indirect rebound effect may be large, causing the overall "overshoot effect" to appear;moreover, the rebound risk everywhere has a lot to do with the structure of economy;when the proportion of high-backward related industries in the economic structure is relatively high, or the potential rebound intensity is relatively great, the vulnerability of structural rebound is greater, thus more vulnerable to the impact of rebound effect.

关 键 词：回弹效应 能源效率 投入产出 收入再分配 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济]