新农保非携带性对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应——兼论对新农合锁定效应的替代  

The Lock-in Effect of Non-Portability of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance’s on Rural Labor Mobility:An Alternative for the Lock-in Effect of New Rural Cooperative Medical System

作　　者：于新亮 申宇鹏 李红波 Yu Xinliang;Shen Yupeng;Li Hongbo

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学保险学院

出　　处：《中国农村观察》2019年第6期109-126,共18页China Rural Survey

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“灾难性卫生支出风险识别、致贫路径与精准保障研究”（项目编号：71804090）;国家社会科学基金青年项目“农村失能老人家庭照料的社会支持研究（项目编号：19CSH073）”;泰山学者工程专项经费“保险风险优化控制策略研究”（项目编号：tsqn20161041）的资助

摘　　要：本文理论分析了新农保对农村劳动力流动的锁定效应,并利用2016年"中国劳动力动态调查"(CLDS)数据进行实证检验,同时对比分析新农合和新农保对农村劳动力流动锁定效应的关系。本文发现,新农保使得农村劳动力流动概率降低了56.82%,使得农村劳动力跨乡镇流动的概率降低了58.04%。新农保对青年和盛年劳动力的锁定效应强于老年劳动力。参加新农保的本地农民工流动到外地成为外出农民工的概率降低了34.03%。此外,对未参加新农保的农村劳动力而言,新农合对其流动性依然产生一定的锁定效应,但参加新农保后,新农合的锁定效应几乎被新农保完全替代。本文研究表明,在当前加快新型城镇化建设的趋势下,调整以新农保为代表的农村养老保险的非携带性显得尤为重要。This article theoretically analyses the lock-in effect of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance(NRSEI)on rural labor mobility,and uses the data of China Labor dynamic survey(CLDS)in 2016 to make an empirical test.It also comparatively analyses the relationship between the New Rural Cooperative Medical System(NRCMS)and NRSEI on the lock-in effect of rural labor mobility.The study finds that participating in NRSEI reduces the probability of rural left-behind labor flow by 56.82%,and reduces the probability of rural labor flow across towns by 58.04%.The lock-in effect of NRSEI on young and middle-aged labor force is stronger than that of old-aged labor force.The probability that local migrant workers migrate to other places decreases by34.03%.In addition,for the rural labor force who does not participate in NRSEI,the NRCMS still has a certain lock-in effect on its mobility,but after participating in NRSEI,the lock-in effect of the NRCMS is almost completely replaced by NRSEI.The study shows that in the current trend of accelerating the construction of new urbanization,it is particularly important to adjust the non-portability characteristics of rural old-age insurance represented by NRSEI.

关 键 词：新农保 非携带性 农村劳动力流动 锁定效应 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]