突发事件网络舆情风险评价的投影寻踪建模与实证研究  

Projection Pursuit Modelling on Network Public Opinion Risk Evaluation of Emergency Events and its Positive Research

作　　者：于晓虹 楼际通[2] 楼文高[3] 宿子顺 程金福 YU Xiao-hong;LOU Ji-tong;LOU Wen-gao;SU Zi-shun;CHENG Jin-fu(Faculty of Eastmoney Media and Management,Shanghai Business School,Shanghai 200235,China;The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,NC27515;Faculty of Information and Computers,Shanghai Business School,Shanghai 200235,China;Faculty of art and design,Shanghai Business School,Shanghai 200235,China)

机构地区：[1]上海商学院东方财富传媒与管理学院,上海200235 [2]北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校,NC 27515 [3]上海商学院信息与计算机学院,上海2002353 [4]上海商学院艺术设计学院,上海200235

出　　处：《情报科学》2019年第11期79-88,共10页Information Science

基　　金：全国统计科学研究“高维数据降维技术的逐次投影寻踪建模与实证研究”(2016LY93);国家民委“当今国外涉华民族舆情研究”(2017-GMB-036);上海哲学社会科学“改革开放四十年传媒与反腐探索研究”(2018BXW010)

摘　　要：【目的/意义】将四种不同的投影寻踪(PP)模型引入到突发事件网络舆情风险评价研究中,针对有教师值、无教师值和有单指标评价标准的舆情风险评价问题,分别采用两种PP模型进行实证研究,拓展了舆情风险评价的新方法。【方法/过程】根据前人研究建立的舆情风险评价指标体系和数据,将专家法结果纳入PP模型的约束条件中,实现专家主观判断结果(意见)与PP模型客观结果的有机结合,进而建立基于决策者偏好的舆情风险评价PP模型。【结果/结论】PP模型能很好地应用于三类舆情风险评价问题的研究,计算结果与专家法结果具有很好的一致性。指出了现有的应用投影寻踪分类(PPC)和插值型PPC(IPPC)模型进行舆情风险评价研究存在的问题,提出了建立可靠和有效PP模型的基本原则和注意事项。【Purpose/significance】For three types of emergency events public opinion risk evaluation(EEPORE))with teacher’s value, without teacher’s value and single-index evaluation criteria, four kinds of projection pursuit(PP)model were applied, and every two PPC models were applied to each type of EEPORE. The specification and standard process of building up the PPC models were introduced in this paper, and being a new method for EEPORE.【Method/process】Based on the literatures with evaluation indexes and sample data of the EEPORE, the expert’s opinions were incorporated into the constraint conditions of the PPC models and the effective combination of the expert’s subjective and the PPC model objective was achieved, the PP models for EEPORE were established based on the decision-maker preference.【Result/conclusion】The PP models are good suitable to three types of EEPORE, and the results of PP models are good agreement with the expert’s opinions. The shortcomings and errors of the published articles applying PP models to EEPORE were discussed and analyzed. The basic principles and the steps for building up the PP models practically were put forwarded.

关 键 词：突发事件 网络舆情风险评价 投影寻踪 实证研究 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]