基于协整和误差修正的货车保有量测算模型  

Calculation Method on Number of Freight Wagons Reasonably Kept by Railway Based on Cointegration Theory and Error Correction Model

作　　者：钱名军[1] 李引珍[1] 江涌 王亚浩 QIAN Mingjun;LI Yinzhen;JIANG Yong;WANG Yahao(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Qingdao Metro Group Operating Branch,Qingdao 266000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]青岛地铁集团运营分公司,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《铁道学报》2019年第11期10-17,共8页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71861022);兰州交通大学校青年基金(2014029)

摘　　要：铁路系统保有合理的货车数量是开展货运工作的基础。在不依赖先验信息的情况下,首先从运营数据序列本身所包含的特征信息出发,计算出保有量与路网货运营业里程、货运量、货运周转量、周转时间等变量间的Pearson相关系数矩阵。其次,为避免模型变量过多造成过拟合,采用基于方差的膨胀因子法对多元变量相关性进行共线性诊断,再用逐步回归法筛选出包含信息量最多、解释能力最强的2个变量作为自变量。然后,基于协整理论构建出含多元变量的货车保有量误差修正模型。最后,运用算例验证误差修正模型在保有量测算中的有效性,并对测算精度进行检验分析。Maintaining a reasonable number of freight wagons in the railway system is the basis to carry out transportation operations. Without relying on the prior information, firstly the pearson correlation coefficient matrix on the relationship between the number of freight wagons and the railway network mileage of freight operation, the freight volume, the freight turnover, and the turnaround time was set up according to the characteristics shown by the operational data sequence. Secondly, the collinear diagnosis to the correlation between the multivariate variables was carried out with the method of variance inflation factor to avoid over-fitting caused by the excessive variables in the modal. Then the two variables which had the most information and the strongest explanatory power were selected as the independent variables by the stepwise regression method. As a result, the error correction model containing multiple variables to determine the reasonable number of the railway wagons kept by the railways was established based on the co-integration theory. Finally, a case study was conducted to verify the validity of the model mentioned above, which shows that the method is effective and correct. Meanwhile, the calculation accuracy was tested and analyzed in this paper.

关 键 词：铁路运输 货车保有量 误差修正模型 协整理论 测算方法 

分 类 号：U292.62[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]