中国的房价上涨与实体经济投资:拉动效应还是挤出效应?  

Rise of Housing Price and Real Economic Investment in China:Pulling Effect or Crowding-out Effect?

作　　者：郑东雅[1] 皮建才[2] 刘志彪[1] ZHENG Dongya;PI Jiancai;LIU Zhibiao(Department of Industrial Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210093,China;Department of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院产业经济学系 [2]南京大学经济学院经济学系

出　　处：《金融评论》2019年第4期1-13,124,共14页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

摘　　要：本文构建了一个包括家庭、房地产部门、房地产相关部门和其他实体经济部门的动态一般均衡模型,发现房价上涨影响实体经济投资的机制有静态和动态的拉动效应和挤出效应。综合静态和动态效应,房价上涨有可能会拉动实体经济投资,也有可能会挤出实体经济投资,还有可能对实体经济投资的影响不显著。基于2001-2015年中国31个省级行政区域的面板数据,研究发现从全国层面来看房价上涨挤出了实体经济的投资,其中房价上涨1%,实体经济投资下降0.219%;分区域来看,东部地区房价上涨挤出了实体经济投资,其中房价上涨1%,实体经济投资下降0.295%,中西部地区房价上涨对实体经济投资的影响不显著。当前经济下行压力增大,增加实体经济投资需要控制房价,特别是东部地区的房价。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2015,we find that the overall effect of the rising of house prices on the real economic investment is the crowding-out effect.When the house prices rose 1%,the real economic investment decreased by 0.219%.The overall effect in the eastern region is also the crowding-out effect.When the house price rose 1%,the real economic investment decreased by 0.295%.The impact in the middle and western region is not significant.Under the pressure of economic downward,to increase the real economic investment needs to control housing prices,especially in the eastern region.

关 键 词：房价 实体经济投资 拉动效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：C33[社会学] C61