地方政府债务的风险预警模型构建及风险评估分析——基于吉林省39个县（市）的数据  

Risk Early Warning Model Construction and Risk Assessment Analysis of Local Government Debt——Based on the Data of 39 Counties(cities)in Jilin Province

作　　者：张晓晖[1,2] ZHANG Xiao-hui(Changchun Finance College,Changchun 130028,China;Jilin Financial Cultural Research Center,Changchun 130028,China)

机构地区：[1]长春金融高等专科学校 [2]吉林省金融文化研究中心

出　　处：《长春金融高等专科学校学报》2019年第6期5-17,共13页Journal of Changchun Finance College

基　　金：吉林省社科联2019年项目（2019JLSKWT002）

摘　　要：十九大报告明确将防范化解重大风险列为"三大攻坚战"之首,而风险防控的重中之重是防范化解地方政府债务风险。通过构建地方政府债务风险预警模型,对地方政府的债务风险情况进行评估和预警分析,从而确定地方政府债务风险的等级情况及主要风险点,对于防范化解地方政府债务风险起着关键作用。就吉林省而言,地方政府债务风险总体可控,但形势依然严峻,尤其个别县(市)的地方政府债务风险已经发出巨警信号。吉林省地方政府债务风险的主要问题在于经济增长动能不足、债务负担过重。因此,应从激发经济增长活力,减轻债务负担两方面着手防范化解地方政府债务风险。In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, prevention and resolution of major risks is clearly listed as the first of the "three major battles", and the top priority of risk prevention and control is to prevent and resolve the debt risk of local governments.Through the construction of the early warning model of local government debt risk, the paper evaluates and analyzes the debt risk of local government, so as to determine the level and main risk points of local government debt risk,which plays a key role in preventing and resolving the debt risk of local government.As far as Jilin Province is concerned, the debt risk of local governments is generally controllable, but the situation is still severe, especially the debt risk of local governments in some counties(cities)has sent out a huge warning signal.The main problems of Jilin local government debt risk lie in the lack of economic growth momentum and excessive debt burden.Therefore, we should stimulate the vitality of economic growth and reduce the debt burden to prevent and resolve the debt risk of local governments.

关 键 词：吉林省 地方政府债务 风险预警 风险评估 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F812.5