从广义虚拟经济视角下的中国房产泡沫增长异质性研究  

Growth Heterogeneity of Real Estate Bubble in China from the Perspective of Generalized Virtual Economy

作　　者：戴淑庚[1] 谢艺菲 DAI Shu-geng;XIE Yi-fei(The Department of Finance,School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院金融系

出　　处：《广义虚拟经济研究》2019年第3期5-16,共12页Research on the Generalized Virtual Economy

基　　金：广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目[项目编号：GX2013-1005(Y)]

摘　　要：本文在广义虚拟经济视角下,利用理性泡沫理论,分析房地产市场中预期因素与价格泡沫增长过程中的动态关系,选取2002年至2017年31个省级行政单位面板数据,并讨论区域异质性。研究发现,房地产泡沫增长率与投资者增长性预期成分互为格兰杰因果关系,且交互作用显著;各样本单位房地产泡沫走势相当,幅度各异;东部地区房地产泡沫较大且增长率与投资者预期交互作用强;中部地区房地产泡沫低,投资者对房价增长率的预期成分较为理性。基于以上结论,本文建议实施与投资者预期相匹配的宏观调控工具,采取综合措施对不同区域进行针对性管理。WFrom the perspective of generalized virtual economy, the paper analyzes the dynamic relationships between expectations and the growth of price bubble in real estate market by rational bubble theory. And we discuss the regional heterogeneity using the panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2017. The research shows that the growth of real estate bubble and the growth expectation factor are Granger causality each other with notable interaction effect;the majority of samples share similarity of bubble development trend while differ in bubble degree;the housing bubble degree is significantly higher in the east where the bubble growth interacts strongly with the growth expectation, while lower in the midland where investors hold more rational expectations towards the price growth. Based on the conclusions above, we recommend to construct the macroeconomic control policy tools matching investors’ expectations, and adopt comprehensive measures for targeted management in different regions.

关 键 词：房地产泡沫 广义虚拟经济 区域异质性 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]