我国货币政策区域效应与产业结构升级的动态效应  

Regional Effect of Monetary Policy and Dynamic Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrading in China

作　　者：邵翠丽 SHAO Cui-li(School of Economics and Management BUPT,Beijing 100876,China;College of Finance and Accounting,Henan University of Animal Husbandry & Economy, Zhengzhou 450044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学经济管理学院 [2]河南牧业经济学院金融与会计学院

出　　处：《商业研究》2019年第11期79-87,共9页Commercial Research

基　　金：河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目,项目编号:2019-ZDJH-044;河南牧业经济学院科研创新团队项目(2018)资助;河南牧业经济学院财务与投资管理重点学科项目(2016)资助

摘　　要：在“新常态”背景下,推动我国产业结构优化升级也是货币政策调控目标之一,但由于我国经济社会发展的地域差异明显,传统的货币政策很难达到预期的效果。货币政策如何实现引导产业升级并兼顾区域间经济发展的差异?本文基于中国2005年第一季度到2017年第四季度的季度数据,利用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型,检验中国货币政策对产业结构升级引导与区域效应。实证结果表明:总体来看,数量型及价格型货币政策都能对不同经济区的产业结构产生有效影响,但调控的区域差异较大;扩张的价格型货币政策倾向于对区域产业结构升级产生负向作用,扩张的数量型货币政策则倾向于产生正向作用;数量型货币政策对产业增加值的冲击作用效果比价格型货币政策弱,但无论是使用何种工具的货币政策都无法对产业结构产生长期持久的影响;利率渠道是货币政策存在区域效应的最可能成因。因此,推进产业结构优化的相关经济政策应该结合不同区域的发展水平及政策传导渠道的差异,最大限度发挥货币政策实施效果。Under the background of “new normal”, promoting the optimization and upgrading of China′s industrial structure is also one of the objectives of monetary policy regulation. However, due to the obvious regional differences in China′s economic and social development, the traditional monetary policy is difficult to achieve the expected results. How can monetary policy guide industrial upgrading and take into account the differences in regional economic development? Based on the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017, this paper uses SV-TVP-FAVAR model to test the guidance and regional effect of China′s monetary policy on industrial structure upgrading.The empirical results show that: on the whole, both quantitative and price monetary policies can have an effective impact on the industrial structure of different economic zones, but the regional differences in regulation are large;the expanding price monetary policy tends to have a negative effect on the upgrading of regional industrial structure, while the expanding quantitative monetary policy tends to have a positive effect;the effect of quantitative monetary policy on industrial added value is weaker than that of price monetary policy, but no matter what kind of monetary policy is used, it cannot have a long-term and lasting impact on industrial structure;interest rate channel is the most likely cause of regional effect of monetary policy.Therefore, the relevant economic policies to promote the optimization of industrial structure should be combined with the development level of different regions and the differences of policy transmission channels to maximize the effect of monetary policy implementation.

关 键 词：货币政策 动态效应 区域效应 产业结构 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]